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RE: Commenting On Trending Posts Is Pure Silver
It will still depend on the user if he want to upvote your commented post. It will be better if you just reply with the OP and do the best possible way to have a great content in your replied post.
You are spot on to a point. You have no guarantee of being upvoted if you reply to a top comment. But at least you are giving yourself a chance to be seen instead of being buried at the bottom of the comments where not nearly as many people will see your comment.
The more you try to reply a great content for Op's post. The higher the chance you will get a jackpot upvote. That's why It will still better to comment from OP rather than riding with high voted from comments but you also had a point that if you know your reply on a comment will hit an upvote then better to do it.