Valuing Cryptocurrencies Based on Competitive Advantage
A major factor when valuing traditional businesses is evaluating their competitive advantage - sometimes referred to as a “moat”. What that means is: how easy it is for another business to replicate their business model and take market share away from them.
There are many different ways that businesses can create a competitive advantage - they can create vendor lock in, like Apple does, they can build out infrastructure that’s hard to replicate like cable or cell phone companies, or they can even just have really strong brands like Coca Cola.
But enough about these boring, traditional companies - the point of this post is that I believe we can value cryptocurrencies and the blockchain platforms on which they operate in a similar way. The following is my quick take on the competitive advantages (or lack thereof) of some popular cryptocurrencies. Everything that follows is only my opinion. Nothing is to be taken as fact nor as financial advice.
Bitcoin
I believe that Bitcoin has the largest competitive advantage of any cryptocurrency at the moment and for that reason I have recently increased my investment in it. It is definitely not a currency yet, and even with things like the lightning network it’s unclear if it will ever really take off as a currency, but it still has immense potential as a store of value or, as some call it, the “new gold”.
The most important thing in being a good store of value is that everyone agrees that it is valuable. Pretty much everyone in the world agrees that gold is valuable. Similarly, an ever-growing number of people agree that Bitcoin is valuable.
Then the question becomes - how easy is it for another cryptocurrency to replace Bitcoin as the best digital store of value? I submit that it will be VERY difficult to do that. Bitcoin works perfectly well as a digital store of value. Its scalability issues only matter for its potential use as a currency. As a store of value, or “digital gold”, few hour confirmation times and $50 transaction fees aren’t really a big deal at all.
It’s super easy to fork Bitcoin as we all know, but those forks offer no real additional benefits as far as being a store of value is concerned, and it’s unlikely that they will be able to surpass the global recognition of the original.
Ethereum
I don’t feel that Ethereum has a very strong competitive advantage at all, and that’s the main reason that I’m not as bullish on it long-term as many others seem to be. I do own some Ether however, for full disclosure.
Ethereum’s, or more specifically Ether’s, value comes from the DApps and ICOs that run on its platform. We see a lot of competitors to Ethereum coming out, and many offer significant advantages to DApps and ICOs over what Ethereum currently provides. There’s also not very many DApps that have any material amount of use on Ethereum right now and there’s not a high cost of switching platforms either.
All it will take is a couple of popular DApps and/or ICOs to start up on another platform to take a lot of the thunder out of Ethereum’s sails, so to speak. Being the first and the most recognized doesn’t provide much advantage for Ethereum like it does for Bitcoin because DApp users just want the best experience from the apps and don’t really care about the underlying platform on which it runs.
Steem
I believe that Steem has a much stronger competitive advantage than Ethereum but still much less than Bitcoin. Steem’s competitive advantage comes from the network effect and what I like to call the chicken or the egg problem.
There certainly can be, and likely will be, competitors to Steem that are better than Steem in a lot of ways. But when they start out their token will have little value because they don’t have many users and it’s hard to get new users because the token has little value. This is what I call the chicken or the egg problem.
Steem has overcome that problem by being the first. People used it because there was no alternative way to earn cryptocurrency by posting content. Now it’s built up a nice and growing user-base so the token has more value which helps bring in more users and creates a virtuous cycle or positive feedback loop.
I’m not saying it’s not possible for a new competitor to overcome that and overtake Steem, I’m just saying that it will be difficult. As time goes on it will get progressively more difficult and so far I haven’t seen anything that is even coming close.
I’m aware that Dan has said he plans to build a competitor to Steem on EOS. That will be a long time out (if he even follows through with it at all) and I think at that point it will be quite difficult to overtake Steem - even for its original creator.
Other Cryptocurrencies
Unfortunately I don’t have much time to learn about other cryptocurrencies in any great detail, but as far as I can tell most of them seem to have little to no competitive advantage at all. That said, a couple that I’m keeping an eye on are:
- Monero - This seems to be the #1 privacy oriented crypto at the moment which is definitely a valuable niche.
- Binance Coin - Binance is one of the top exchanges and no other crypto can provide reduced trading fees on it!
What do you think?
Like I said above, everything here is nothing more than my opinion and should not be taken as fact nor financial advice. Additionally I’m not an expert in investing or finance by any means - I just think about this stuff a lot and these are some of the thoughts I’ve had to help guide my own investment decisions.
I would love to hear what the rest of the Steem community thinks about the competitive advantages of the various cryptocurrencies. Do you agree/disagree with my thoughts on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Steem? Are there any other cryptocurrencies that you feel have a strong competitive advantage that I might not be aware of?
Let me know in the comments - I always try to make sure to reward good, value-adding comments with a nice upvote!
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Agree with your points, except for steem.
I think you are overvaluing the advantage of being the first in something.
Orkut was the First. Look what happened to It when Facebook went global.
This is only one among a lot of other business examples.
Being the first doesnt mean anything long term, If you cant keep up with the competition.
Steem have its value, and as long as It is the only media platform on the blockchain, i Will be fine.
But there is too much small governance and structural problems (like the people that its attracting). And since @ned and co. Doesnt seem to care much about what happens around here in terms of quality of content (wich is the main reasons people start to use a media website), i dont see a bright Future ahead.
Maybe (and a big maybe) steem Will have a Future If the SMTs work. Or Else, there Will be a replacement not Very Far in the Future.
So, i would say that steem have only the advantage of being the Pioneer. Nothing Else.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. Steem's competitive advantage is not that it was the first, being the first is merely the opportunity that allowed it to attain its current competitive advantage which is that it has the vast majority of content publishers (for a blockchain platform) and a highly valued token with which to reward them.
Being the first is not a competitive advantage in and of itself, it's an opportunity, and examples like Orkut simply failed to capitalize on that opportunity.
You're definitely correct about Steem having its share of problems, and it will need to grow and solve them if it wants to maintain the competitive advantage it currently enjoys.
I understood that steem advantage is the user base, which is a consequence of being the first mover on this field.
But an user base can exit a platform as quickly as they got in, when a better alternative become avaiable. In the end that is a Very small advantage.
Most of content publishers are here mainly because of the reason below:
Also, the system is too easy to game.
There is one simple thing that could be done by steemit inc. To actually bring quality:
Partnership with well established content creators.
Bring somemone who have a public and create good stuff in here, and use steem inc. Stack to promote them here (with a bottom page disclaimer, for transparency)
Now you Will have a lot of people that never heard of steemit joining in, because they favorite creator is here.
Also, user interface... Come on, steemit.com is a joke.
Yes, there is better interfaces like busy.org, but for the mass adoption, the base interface must the a lot better than what we have.
I Will be around, until a better alternative arrives. (And i bet a lot of people think like me)
I think that is a very big advantage. It is not easy to get a large user base to switch even if you have a better product.
And as you mentioned most people are here to make money - so any platform that wants to attract those users needs to be able to pay them at least as well as Steem can. Steem currently has a token with a $1 billion market cap - that is going to be hard for any new token/platform to compete with as far as earning potential goes.
I still disagree with you here. All you need is good and reliable product (with a good user interface), and some money to do some well placed marketing. The new generation (z, millenials, whatever is the new name they give), switch things they use on a very quick pace. As an extreme example, let's say a new plaftorm work out some kind of millionaire partnership with pewdiepie for exclusive content, as long as he exit youtube. Boom. Instantaneous million userbase.
The question that should be asked is: Could Steem retain it's userbase? As things are now, my guess is no.
Which was achieved within 2 years, with a pretty broken platform. I could say that a better product, with better content, and a well placed marketing could easily achieve this at the same time or even less.
From what i see how things are going, the big hope in long term for steem is the SMT's. If this turn out badly (which i also hope won't happen), then steem will only survive until the better competitor arrive, which will eventually happen.
All I can say is that if it were really that easy, someone probably would have done it already.
Maybe, but we are still on a brand new world, and there is a lot of projects being built. I bet that the next 5 years a lot of things will change on the cryptoworld....
Hi @yabapmatt
I have a suggestion, can you set the bidbots with fixed rate? This will protect the minnows to take a loss. This would stop overbought too. If not enough buyers, the leftover will be rollover and the bitbots will have less recover time for the next available upvote again. I have seen some1 spent 25sbd but got the vote just $50+, this was a loss one before curation.
Well I have been waiting patiently for a different post from you but I do agree with what you have to say about BTC, ETH, and STEEM.
I'm pretty sure that the lack of action in the price of Gold(and silver) over the past 5/6 years is partly down to BTC fitting the requirements better for the future.
STEEM has first mover advantage for sure, but many are doubtful at present (https://steemit.com/steem/@berniesanders/why-is-steem-never-represented-at-any-real-crypto-conferences) of the route being taken, and the lack of news re: SMTs isn't helping.
I'm hoping it will be like sitting on an minnow oil stock doing it's first drill, and striking a gusher! Amazon taking on an SMT for the reviews section will do nicely :D
Hey @abh12345 - yes i know you're waiting on my post about the benefits of voting bots. That's been in progress for a while now and I'm sorry it's taking me so long.
Steem definitely has its share of problems, but that doesn't mean it doesn't still have a nice competitive advantage. I think just the fact that there are no serious competitors yet proves that to some degree. Most other top blockchain platforms built for specific purposes have a good bit of competition.
That advantage can definitely go away though if the Steem platform doesn't develop and grow to stay ahead.
Regarding the "minnow oil stock" analogy - Steem is already at a $1 billion market cap so it's way past the minnow category by any stretch of the word. Given the roadmap I'm thinking that 10X growth is a reasonable target over the next few years, though obviously that's extremely dependent on the growth or decline of the overall crypto market.
Good things come to those who wait.
Yes I think you are right in that the lack of serious competitors as yet proves the size of the undertaking required. EOS/Dan are big names in the crypto world, but they'll still be faced with the issue Steem/Steemit has has with regards to attracting 'everyday' content creators.
I like the work that @stephenkendal, @starkerz, and others are doing with #promo-steem and @Steem-Ambassador, as I think it's really down to the people here to promote this place like crazy before contenders hit the scene.
$1 billion mc isn't a minnow is it :D There is much room for growth though, and i'll be here riding the waves (I like waves/wagerr as an investment, in that order btw) for the time being.
Hi Asher. :)
What are you doing away from that sick bed and socializing away? I saw your post this morning but didn't have a chance to comment. I hope you feel better! Wash your hands a gazillion times the next time you visit a farm.
P.S., interesting discussion with you and Matt! I'm trying to learn this crypto world. Such a whole new world for me. I really thought my learning days would be over after college.
Great to see you blogging again! Although that's not to say your work on postpromoter is not valuable as it really is!
I feel altcoins will do fine regardless, most will rise with Bitcoin. Market sentiment has definitely shifted recently, people are far more bullish, noone's bragging about how they're "gonna buy $2k bitcoin next week".
With Bitcoin nearly touching $10k and May historically being a good month for cryptos, we could be on the brink of a fantastic bull run.
I expect Steemit to get a lot busier over the next few months, feels like a lot of new people have been discouraged by the increasingly capitalist nature of Steemit.
I presume you are familiar with Metcalfe's law? If it holds true it bodes very well for Steem as a cryptocurrency.
I think you are overstating the case for STEEM. Your point is valid that for a social platform, users are key - a.k.a. its network effect.
But while STEEM has a high number of users compared to other crypto projects, those users are not well integrated. On Facebook, for example, when you join you are immediately coordinated with your friends, family, random people you went to high school with, etc. That quickly creates the network for your content to reach.
On STEEM it's all random and highly fragmented. So the switching cost from steemit to some new platform with lots of advertising is not high. A random audience on STEEM is not inherently better than a random audience on some other platform.
The big question mark is going to be EOS' effect on STEEM. We know @dan and @ned don't get along any more. Will there be a focus on creating a STEEM competitor from the block.one team? Even if there isn't anybody could make a social platform on EOS.
As you said, the key to the whole thing is getting users. Maybe one of the highest funded launches in the history of the world will be able to create some buzz?
Sure users can easily switch platforms, but the novelty with blockchain/crypto-based content publishing sites is the ability to earn money from your content. The competitive advantage is really in the relatively high market price of Steem. I think it will be difficult for any other platform, even one built on EOS, to get to that level. I don't think users will be very inclined to switch to a platform with lower rewards, even if it is better in other ways.
That being said - it's entirely possible that a competitor will come along and completely replace Steem. I never said it can't or won't happen. Competitive advantages can and have been overcome many times in the past. The point is that Steem does enjoy a competitive advantage at the moment, and in my opinion it's a larger competitive advantage than Ethereum which has a number of competitors at its throat.
I just dont see that happening. Do you know what would need to happen for aomeone like me to switch platforms?
You would need to present me with a far superior version of steemit. As in no stake based reward system and a clear incentive in the fact i would have a larger audience then on steemit.
Steemit has 60k daily users. Can EOS offer me that? Can it offer me more then 50-100-200 dollars per post?
Ive invested so much time and effort here and i will leave? The people ive met, friends ive made.... No... Steem needs to fail for me to leave.
Steem has the largest userbase of all and thats a fact. You cant kill that easily.
Obviously this is all hypothetical at this point.
But 60k daily users is not a lot. A social platform that spends on marketing could get to that size pretty easily.
I don’t know that it will happen. I’m just saying the barrier to entry for a steemit competitor is pretty low. Someone might look at ned’s account and realize that they could create similar wealth for themselves with a new offering.
Well i dont see that happening that easily. Creating a whole new blockchain with fixed issues all around. And 60k daily users is a lot in the crypto sphere. No other blockchain i know of has that many users. Those numbers are based on daily transactions. The amount of registered users is larger. Steem has accumulated the "everyday guy" type of user most of the population is. Im an "everyday guy" in regards to my monetary power regardless of my talents.. I dont have cash to throw at a token.
And im pretty positive that the future is in us consistent users once the disbalance is rid of, hopefully with SMTs.
As you said, a user base on a regular platform can grow rapidly if you have a product and throw money at it, but this is crypto. Those rules dont apply here.
Little if any rules apply here in that regard
Excellent Post!
I use a similar system in evaluating cryptocurrency: Instead of competitive advantage I use: Market Disruption & Transaction costs.
I feel as though people are looking for more reasons for Bitcoin to exist, but this utility is good enough. Payment processors are very valuable & The Bitcoin network has a very high hashrate, very secure and that itself is so important.
Ethereum - I definitely see the value in having an autonomous escrow or decentralized applications, I just don't see Ethereum as it. With so many new decentralized application virtual machine infrastructures hitting the scene EOS, NEO (without going on forever), how is Ethereum going to maintain its dominance? ETH has a very centralized model and that has been a source of contention in the community and dissent (ETC). I can easily see an exodus from Ethereum to a platform with features which automate the smart contract creation process.
Steem is the most interesting, because the utility of tokenized social media platforms has the most to offer to its users, the driving force of the growth, who are currently using Facebook, and being excluded from the reward pool.
All over the world, inefficiencies are costing people money. I believe the cryptocurrencies of tomorrow will be the crypto which solves the inefficiencies of today.
Thanks for your post @yabapmatt, I just discovered your work here and really appreciate it. Have a great day.
Thanks for your insight into the cryptoworld. If only I took the time to learn about cryptocurrency before BTC became a phenomenon.
I did notice EOS tripling in value within the last couple weeks. I've also seen posts floating around here on ONOS and eosDAC on the EOS platform. I do agree it would be challenging for these tokens to gain market share, as is with every new business that enters the industry. If one system is broken though, wouldn't people jump ship to another? Like users of Myspace jumping ship to Facebook?
I really should brush up on my marketing. My concentration in college was Marketing but I can't remember any of it anymore. Years of misuse will do that. :)
-Oops, edited BTS to BTC. Typo, that happens when I try to sneak in some Steemit time at work. :)
i agree with your above comparisons. i do think bitcoin has the strongest advantage though personally i have a grudge against it for those high transaction fees and long wait times lol! i also agree and am partial to steem as a usable easy to store and transact token. no other crypto that i hold has such a good ROI and can be earned through "posting" or proof of brain. that alone makes it stand out to me and the SMTs coming out in the future which will only increase its value.
i also see things like ripple (though centralized) as having a big place in mainstream society. anything mass adopted by centralized institutions and governments can only be good for improving the "face" of cryptos to the mainstream. once that is overcome, i believe decentralized cryptos will start to be met with less fear. we can thank cryptos like ripple for providing this news attention and getting the foot in the door (no matter how we morally feel about them long term or the institutions touting them).
i'm also quite excited about EOS and dan's project. i really love your positive prognosis for steem and i am hoping we continue to have a growing community here, while also keeping an eye out for what happens over on the EOS platform.
stellar, ltc and cardano are others that i'm holding longterm as i think they'll only appreciate in value.
i see the utility tokens with low transaction costs and fast speeds as the tokens of the future. which ones make it "big" and gain competitive advantage will be the ones which are adopted on a mass scale and used. i see steem as leading that list! ;)
I think steems advantage is that it is first to market but it is very scalable as well so it won't get bogged down. I'm staking a lot in steem and feel like I'm missing out on the others but it is the easiest opportunity for people who don't know how to speculate. Just work hard and earn. That makes it so different for me than anything else. I certainly hope your right with what you said above.
I think that should be Steem's new motto!
wouldn't that be great @yabapmatt ? You know, the fact is that every participant's interests on steemit are aligned but few realize it. It doesn't matter if you are a whale or a plankton. This has developed just as a normal capitalist system and people can study any capitalist economy since the 1870's and be able to predict how steemit should operate. The pitfalls are written in history and anyone with a real stake in the game should understand this. There would be no worry about a new competitor if people understood how to protect the ecosystem but when you mix money with human nature it creates problems lol. So just work and hard earn would be a perfect motto for every member. If it is too easy it will mean less and if you are a whale without a worry in the world you might not notice the change in tides soon enough to avoid getting beached.
Bitcoin is the gold of the crypto world and will remain so for many years to come. It's going to be incredibly difficult to replace bitcoin.
As for Ether, I think it does have its own value even though it benefits heavily from airdrops and ICO's. I believe Ether has an edge over STEEM.
Despite all the platforms springing up on a regular basis, I believe steemit has built roots deep enough to handle anything. The userbase is strong and loyal, and there's a social heirachy that's evolved on the platform.
Let's not forget that steemit is mad fun. I see brigther days ahead for STEEM, competition or not.
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