RE: Valuing Cryptocurrencies Based on Competitive Advantage
I think you are overstating the case for STEEM. Your point is valid that for a social platform, users are key - a.k.a. its network effect.
But while STEEM has a high number of users compared to other crypto projects, those users are not well integrated. On Facebook, for example, when you join you are immediately coordinated with your friends, family, random people you went to high school with, etc. That quickly creates the network for your content to reach.
On STEEM it's all random and highly fragmented. So the switching cost from steemit to some new platform with lots of advertising is not high. A random audience on STEEM is not inherently better than a random audience on some other platform.
The big question mark is going to be EOS' effect on STEEM. We know @dan and @ned don't get along any more. Will there be a focus on creating a STEEM competitor from the block.one team? Even if there isn't anybody could make a social platform on EOS.
As you said, the key to the whole thing is getting users. Maybe one of the highest funded launches in the history of the world will be able to create some buzz?
Sure users can easily switch platforms, but the novelty with blockchain/crypto-based content publishing sites is the ability to earn money from your content. The competitive advantage is really in the relatively high market price of Steem. I think it will be difficult for any other platform, even one built on EOS, to get to that level. I don't think users will be very inclined to switch to a platform with lower rewards, even if it is better in other ways.
That being said - it's entirely possible that a competitor will come along and completely replace Steem. I never said it can't or won't happen. Competitive advantages can and have been overcome many times in the past. The point is that Steem does enjoy a competitive advantage at the moment, and in my opinion it's a larger competitive advantage than Ethereum which has a number of competitors at its throat.
I just dont see that happening. Do you know what would need to happen for aomeone like me to switch platforms?
You would need to present me with a far superior version of steemit. As in no stake based reward system and a clear incentive in the fact i would have a larger audience then on steemit.
Steemit has 60k daily users. Can EOS offer me that? Can it offer me more then 50-100-200 dollars per post?
Ive invested so much time and effort here and i will leave? The people ive met, friends ive made.... No... Steem needs to fail for me to leave.
Steem has the largest userbase of all and thats a fact. You cant kill that easily.
Obviously this is all hypothetical at this point.
But 60k daily users is not a lot. A social platform that spends on marketing could get to that size pretty easily.
I don’t know that it will happen. I’m just saying the barrier to entry for a steemit competitor is pretty low. Someone might look at ned’s account and realize that they could create similar wealth for themselves with a new offering.
Well i dont see that happening that easily. Creating a whole new blockchain with fixed issues all around. And 60k daily users is a lot in the crypto sphere. No other blockchain i know of has that many users. Those numbers are based on daily transactions. The amount of registered users is larger. Steem has accumulated the "everyday guy" type of user most of the population is. Im an "everyday guy" in regards to my monetary power regardless of my talents.. I dont have cash to throw at a token.
And im pretty positive that the future is in us consistent users once the disbalance is rid of, hopefully with SMTs.
As you said, a user base on a regular platform can grow rapidly if you have a product and throw money at it, but this is crypto. Those rules dont apply here.
Little if any rules apply here in that regard