Haejin - Which Came First - The Predictions Or The Steem? Analysis/Comments Inspired By @berniesanders' Flag Attack on @haejin
While thinking about @berniesanders' recent post about flagging @haejin, I realised some interesting questions..
In case you didn't notice, bernie and friends have removed well over $1000 USD from @haejin's recent posts through organised downvoting.
Haejin regularly achieves weekly payouts from steemit from self voting alone that are valued at over $10,000 USD - as you can see at Steem Ocean:
Questions
Haejin tends to only post about cryptocurrency trends and analysis - with the intention of essentially predicting good investment opportunities. It makes sense that on a platform that rewards the 'brain work' that the network's users want to see, that crypto analysis will be well rewarded - if it is good analysis.
If Haejin's crypto predictions are so valuable, then:
a) He would be making huge money from trading himself.
b) So too will his fans.
So, therefore, question 1 is :
How much money do he and his followers invest in Steem from their trading profits?
Maybe overall his posts would increase the price of Steem and be good for everyone? Assuming that they are truly valuable.
And question 2 is:
If his posts are not valuable and don't produce benefits and don't reflect proof of brain, then why does anyone support or upvote him?
Given that he recently announced he will be participating in the launch of a crypto analysis website (with Tone Vays) - maybe there is something to his advice? While I don't necessarily value Tone Vays advice at all, there are many who do it seems.
Examples
I have picked out some posts from Haejin's recent past at semi-random.. I was just looking for posts that made predictions.
Here's one from 8 days ago in which he said that he thought XVG would increase in price:
It has, in fact, dropped by about 30% since his post was published.
On this post about Ethereum from 16 days ago - he said that ETH would probably rise around the turn of May - and it actually did (higher than he predicted):
https://steemit.com/ethereum/@haejin/ethereum-eth-five-wave-impulse
In this post about Tenx (PAY) from 24 days ago, he predicted a surge in price during May:
https://steemit.com/tenx/@haejin/tenx-pay-trend-reversal-around-the-corner
Which has not occurred.
This post from 32 days ago on DASH, predicted a price rise in mid to late April, which DID occur - actually a 100% price increase:
https://steemit.com/dash/@haejin/dash-this-way-or-that-way-same-destination
Conclusion
From my brief analysis of Haejin's posts, it seems that there is a (very rough) 50/50 chance of him being right about the predictions he makes. On one level this is not surprising, since markets can really only go up or down (a 50/50 chance either way) - yet it seems that in some cases his patterns may offer some kind of value that is more than just random chance.
How does this work out over time? Would we all be millionaires if we just tested out every prediction he makes in a safe/intelligent way? It would be interesting to see a more thorough examination of the data.
In any case, if Haejin were to actively do something with the money he is receiving, that is obvious to the Steem community - then he would possibly not be the target for such hate. Is that ever likely to happen? There are many here who use what little they have to make a difference in life that serves humanity - it would be great to see that occur with Haejin and maybe even one day have him remove himself from his solid position at the top spot of self voters on Steem.
Wishing you well,
Ura Soul
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Without witnesses there is no Steem, Steemit, DTube, Utopian or
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There are hundreds of folks not acting as financial advisors yet sure sounding like ones. Why aren't they being flagged into the stone age for the time sensitive crap they are filling up the blockchain with? Who are the greedy ones? Haejin or those that would not even know him but for the transpatency of the blockchain and now project their hate because they feel they know, better, where the rewards should be going.
If he has the stake and is using software features available to him then what the hell?
Where our wagging fingers should be pointing is to those of the sacred 20 which will not push for software fixes to deal with all potential Haejins and not this one account. Even witnesses perform self voting! The flag wars are just pissing contests, in my opinion, that distract from the real issue.... software solutions!
I know, right? If i was being conspiratorial,
Id suggest this haijin flag war is a ruse to hide the real issues. Even so, that's the effect of it anyways.
Steemit shouldn't be this complicated to figure out, but it is.
Then he's being a faggot. He's using a software feature is asinine, is he free of the consequences of plagiarism simply because he uses copy paste? Is he free from the consequences of selfvoting especially almost exclusively so simply because he uses a mechanism designed to act as a rating system to rate himself?
Let's talk about the consequences: the community responds. Yeah, all those awful people,
who dare to use the Curation system to actually god forbid, express what they think with the very mechanism that has been specifically designed to do that, as @dan demonstrated with the other "anal"cyst ozcharts a year and a half ago when the same scenario happened and @dan downvoted the abuser.
This is kinda obvious for most people, but being an abuser and extracting value like an inconsiderate douchebag has consequences, and they are flags and uproar.
We are in agreement that the practise is not the desired one for either of us, @baah. My feeling is that if the software allows undesired behavior than the algoritm(s) needs adjustment. Flag one spammer down and another arises to take their place.
For example, and really only a random example, if the community does not think self voting is desired then restrict it in the software rather than downvoting someone about it. This change is expected in the next fork evidently.
In the same way it is my feeling that many undesired practices could be restricted via software mods.
Read the whitepaper, it talks that preventing abuse is not the point, and I agree.
Simply because real life allows people to kill others doesn't make any sense to punish everyone by making them wear full armor and weapons, if they want to or not. If someone think it wise to "use a software feature " to plagiarize work we don't argue that it was the software feature copy paste that is the problem, which is why I find it odd to argue that we agree on abuse, because you think the abuser is not at fault and you must have me mistaken with someone else because I don't think you understand what I said.
For example, taking out self voting penalizes everyone and doesn't solve anything as now people will make another account to vote on themselves with, in turn it's crystal clear AWFUL, INCONSIDERATE, advice because the abuse will be obfuscated and it adds more spam with countless people making alts to vote themselves. Instead we have downvoting. Which is so awful it's almost as bad as that other software feature.(sarcasmball)
It's not the intention of preventing abuse, which ends up Only penalizing those that don't abuse, in a mentality that if the software allows to post child pornography it's the software that's to blame because preventing it only requires a comity to approve. You know why we have downvoting?
Thanks for your detailed explanation, @baah. One might aurgue that allowing 10 posts daily instead of 11 is penalizing the inmocent.... yet your point is well taken and seems very valid to me.
Excellent comment. This has been pretty much what I've been preaching too. Most of the Reward pool Justice Warriors aren't willing to talk or even think about real protocol changes and opt for completely inefficient and at times completely ineffective solutions. I'm glad that @flagawhale actually had a good conversation with me. You can read the whole thing here:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@everittdmickey/re-lexiconical-flagging-bot-users-arbitrarily-is-like-arresting-those-paying-protection-money-to-the-mob-20180409t223917583z
Glad to see someone thinking about more long term and fair to all solutions. If @haejin was taken down, another would take its place. If whale abuse get noticed, dolphins may still fly under the radar. 100% upvoted for asking for software solutions above all else.
There's a huge thing about it on @pharesim's recent post about @jerrybanfield and Witness voting. You'll see @sircork and @themarkymark pointing out valid points that seem to be brushed aside there.
What @berniesanders (props to him by the way) has done is a work-around and easing the symptoms of an extremely flawed system.
An interesting read. Gave @pharesim @boatymcboatface's vote and will be rethinking my other sacred 20 votes. Thanks for sharing.
Nah, I think this is a classic move where they move on to sell "lectures and discourses" at a price to "help" people get rich. Little do they know, Tone Vays, et al. profits off of them instead of actual crypto trading.
I'm willing to bet most people who are fervent supporters have no idea how Steemit works. They see a $200-300 post and they assume it's because it's extremely popular. Little did they know, it's an illusion created by using 2 large votes.
Those 300+ tiny votes don't realize that they probably only attributed to less than $1.50 on his posts.
I am still trying to figure out how H using bots are profiting him at all, or if it is just from the self votes, and circle jerk votes and the few that vote for him because he is in trending. So far, my experience with bots aren't making much sense, since you lose value throughout the week and any small amount won from the bids seem to also disappear during the payout conversion.
I have not analyzed his wallet yet, and his bid bot bets and payouts, but with my own experience so far, I don't see where the bid bots actually make you money. Not enough to where he is betting as much as he does.
Then add in the flagging, its even worse for H. so why does he do it? I must be missing something...
https://steemit.com/steemit/@miss-j/do-all-bidbots-actually-make-you-lose-money-why-are-50-50-payouts-not-paid-in-50-sbd-50-sbd-worth-of-steem
How come berniesanders has rep -18 but is still trending?
I don't know - maybe posts from accounts with negative rep are not censored if they hit trending..
but how come he gets so many upvotes but rep is not improving? he is negative for months now.
I read that @dan set his rep to be minus 18 somehow (maybe with massive downvotes).. It will take a lot of upvotes to correct that!
okay, is there any page i can read about the beef between @dan and bernie?
You can just search through the steem blockchain around the time period of this post:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@berniesanders/6g6eag-berniesanders-signing-off
This is @berniesanders signing off! :D
Simple, he calls higher highs and is right more often in a bull market but is wrong more often in a bear market. He made outlandish calls in December and January that are still down bigtime.
His major downfall though is him silencing people that provide counterpoints to his TA by flagging them to death. I have had my rep destroyed twice by him and starjuno simply because I suggested coins like Bitconnect were a scam and it was bad TA to suggest buying in at $400. It is now at $1.17, so this is a brutally unfair system where someone can make $300 on terrible advice, and in turn flag and wipe out pending payments because someone argued against him
This is absolutely correct. A rising market makes everyone look like a genius.
Analysis is a weird game. You can be right only 30% of the time and make tons of money if your money management rules are good.
Is haejin good at TA? No - based on my almost 20 years in the game. The good news is that crypto is an incredibly volatile asset class so it almost doesn't matter. All his recent posts have been RandomCoin up 3498735% since analysis! And I'm thinking yeah... the whole market is up.
He's done a hell of a job of figuring out how to profit from content though.
I agree, you do not need to be right often as long as you manage your buy and sell orders correctly.
The funny thing is, even during the bull run where he was describing explosions and how great his calls were, if you averaged out the calls he made he was actually below the average coin gain during that time.
So even at his most accurate/profitable time, he was still not anymore useful than just randomly picking coins. For every Explosion of 600% there was another coin that went for triple that.
Then on the flip side when things were bad like the big BTC correction, he was still calling higher highs for several days and suggested it was a minor correction and to not sell.
So when he is right he is lucky to be above average market, and when he is wrong it is beyond bad.
Him figuring out how to profit is pretty simple. Make secondary accounts and/or make a deal with other whales and just upovote and promote one another only. He is downvoted so much, but it means nothing since he and his friends have so much power now on this platform. If him, rancho, and starjuno didn't vote for his content he would be earning nothing.
His whole reward scamming thing isn't even my biggest issue with him. I just hate how he plays the victim card because he is getting rewards declined, yet has no issues doing it to others and not just destroying payouts but then knocking rep down 30-40 levels at a time. Why because I thought Bern coin was a bad investment because they literally have no team, no forum activity, no whitepaper. But the bottom of a cup and handle is forming, what a joke. It is down btw...
Thanks @ura-soul for your contribution to the most popular story on steemit.
People are not fighting Haejin for his predictions, but for self voting.
This community wasn't built for that, self voting your posts alone is breaking the rules of this community. We all depend on each other for everything.
I think, people have been warning him for long before they started flagging him. It would be nice if he can be the reason why some people can be happy here too.
Some people supported him when he was growing too. So, it is expected of him to support others too
He can predict whatever he want to predict, I have no issue with that, anybody that find it helpful can follow his predictions, but he need to change.
To be clear, there is no rule about self voting in the terms of conditions of the software here, but yes, there is a need for balanced community and that means helping others.
Thanks for the correction, I'm sure you know that was my intention.... Hug
That will never happen, Haejin is self obsessed maniac who only look at Steemit as money machine.
Someone calculated that you would lose money if you followed Haejin advices. But why would Haejin care?! He only posts to collect money 10 times per day.
Haejin followers in front of homeless shelter
Few more people who trusted Haejin
Asher had a post about the Haejin the other day talking about his effect in the platform
https://steemit.com/steem/@abh12345/the-haejin-effect
In one of the comments that I left there someone replied that there was an account that was monitoring how effective the TAs of Haejin was and it was this account https://steemit.com/@truthtrader
I admit I was a follower of Haejin at the start in Twitter but never in Steemit because the amount he is getting is just crazy and he just uses it as a cash cow.
I remember Anomadsoul even tried to reason with the guy to at least lessen the self voting.
I don't think that self voting is bad by itself anything above 5% though I have to shake my head and according to his latest data in steemocean he was at 92% and the rest are downvotes to his detractors.
they lost their vote value for the flag attack otherside we minnows are always staying minnows
I’d draw my conclusion from yours. His predictions are mostly right and he does know a bit about this and I guess that’s the pattern. The source of the hatred is the self upvoting habit , anyone could do it but he’s expected to give more to the community. He might change and he might not .