Great insights, thank you for sharing! Can I just comment on a couple of points...?
That's 182,000 DECs worth of profit from the 25,000 DEC Tokens spent!
If the potions double your chances, you would arguable have got half of that anyway. So 207k / 2 = 103.5 - 25k = 78.5k profit! Still really amazing, btw!
However, there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason for the drops.
That's expected variance for what is still a relatively small sample.
How many Legendaries did you open? Your results imply that 0.4% of your drops were gold legendaries, so statistically you could have 2 more (although the sample size is tiny). If you got gold on half of your legendaries (with only 4% chance on each) that's incredibly lucky!
... and explains most of the profitability. Would your outcome have been profitable still if you didn't get any gold Legendaries?
Hi there! Thanks for pointing out those nuances about the 50% increased rewards. I forgot to factor that in when calculating for profit. I might edit the post later for that. Lol!
I actually opened a total of 7 Legendary cards. Out of the seven, 2 turned out gold and 5 were just regular Legendaries. So, 1.4% were Legendary, of which 28% turned gold.
I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from that, to be honest. Although I find it interesting to get those Legendary Cards even without the potion. This is actually why it makes me wonder if I just happened to be especially lucky that day and the potion being active had nothing to do with it. Or which gold cards turned out gold because of the potion, and which ones would have been gold regardless. I mean when it comes to actions like revealing cards or flipping something in games there's always an element of luck.
As for the profitability, since I only spent 25,000 DECs on potions in total, then I have a wide margin. The Epic Gold Card from the Orb should cover my expenses with at least 5,000 DECs as profit. So, while the Gold Legendaries really increased my profits by a mile, it's not entirely dependent on it.
I've been hodling my DEC but this makes me want to go buy some potions! It shouldn't matter what league I'm in right because they are good for 500 uses? I'd hate to waste it on bronze/silver.
One thing I've noticed though is that the potions seem to work better when opening multiple cards at a time. For example, I got the 2 Gold Legendaries when I opened 120 Season Rewards, while the Gold Epic was when I opened 20 Orbs (100 Cards) at the same time. So, that's something to think about.
Also, keep in mind that there is no guarantee that you'll get what you spent on potions back. It's still a gamble, after all. And like any other gamble, it's better to just spend whatever amount you're willing to lose.
If you're HODLing DECs, another thing you could consider is to HODL until you get enough to buy 100 orbs and both potions, and then to use all 500 potion charges on the orbs. That's a lot of HODLing, since you'll need 290k DECs for that. But I just learned that this could be a really efficient use of DECs and potions because the cards you get from orbs are worth much more than the reward cards and even beta cards.
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those are some real sweet returns. I only recently started using the potions and i started with the daily quest one. My attention is still very much on the orb cards for now and once ive collected them all Ill focus on the reward cards again
Great insights, thank you for sharing! Can I just comment on a couple of points...?
If the potions double your chances, you would arguable have got half of that anyway. So 207k / 2 = 103.5 - 25k = 78.5k profit! Still really amazing, btw!
That's expected variance for what is still a relatively small sample.
How many Legendaries did you open? Your results imply that 0.4% of your drops were gold legendaries, so statistically you could have 2 more (although the sample size is tiny). If you got gold on half of your legendaries (with only 4% chance on each) that's incredibly lucky!
... and explains most of the profitability. Would your outcome have been profitable still if you didn't get any gold Legendaries?
Hi there! Thanks for pointing out those nuances about the 50% increased rewards. I forgot to factor that in when calculating for profit. I might edit the post later for that. Lol!
I actually opened a total of 7 Legendary cards. Out of the seven, 2 turned out gold and 5 were just regular Legendaries. So, 1.4% were Legendary, of which 28% turned gold.
I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from that, to be honest. Although I find it interesting to get those Legendary Cards even without the potion. This is actually why it makes me wonder if I just happened to be especially lucky that day and the potion being active had nothing to do with it. Or which gold cards turned out gold because of the potion, and which ones would have been gold regardless. I mean when it comes to actions like revealing cards or flipping something in games there's always an element of luck.
As for the profitability, since I only spent 25,000 DECs on potions in total, then I have a wide margin. The Epic Gold Card from the Orb should cover my expenses with at least 5,000 DECs as profit. So, while the Gold Legendaries really increased my profits by a mile, it's not entirely dependent on it.
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I've been hodling my DEC but this makes me want to go buy some potions! It shouldn't matter what league I'm in right because they are good for 500 uses? I'd hate to waste it on bronze/silver.
Yes, it's good for 500 uses.
One thing I've noticed though is that the potions seem to work better when opening multiple cards at a time. For example, I got the 2 Gold Legendaries when I opened 120 Season Rewards, while the Gold Epic was when I opened 20 Orbs (100 Cards) at the same time. So, that's something to think about.
Also, keep in mind that there is no guarantee that you'll get what you spent on potions back. It's still a gamble, after all. And like any other gamble, it's better to just spend whatever amount you're willing to lose.
If you're HODLing DECs, another thing you could consider is to HODL until you get enough to buy 100 orbs and both potions, and then to use all 500 potion charges on the orbs. That's a lot of HODLing, since you'll need 290k DECs for that. But I just learned that this could be a really efficient use of DECs and potions because the cards you get from orbs are worth much more than the reward cards and even beta cards.
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Thanks for the tip! lol I think they’ll be out of orbs by the time I get that much...
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You can always start buying a few every now and then. The only downside is you won't get the bonus orbs from buying in bulk.
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I couldn't fully understand the drop rate analysis but I guess I need not worry :)
Congratulations!
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Lol! That's ok. And thanks for stopping by. 😁
Congrats for those.
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Thanks! 😀
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those are some real sweet returns. I only recently started using the potions and i started with the daily quest one. My attention is still very much on the orb cards for now and once ive collected them all Ill focus on the reward cards again