I disagree the dems should pull Biden, based on prediction markets.

He didn’t drop to sub-5%, but rather from 40s to ~25% (avg PredictIt & Polymarket). That’s chance to win, not polling data (easy to mix up when you are reading both types). Whereas IMO a replacement can’t win.

From an integrity perspective, of course, pulling him is the right thing. Admitting to the mistake and setting the stage to regain the trust with moderates like the non-Sacks All In Pod crew.

But in the calculus of politics how can that be worth giving up a 1/4 chance to win?

This is not to dismiss the foolishness of their choice to run him, just choosing to focus on present practicalities.

His cabinet can run the country just fine, as they probably already are. Sure there’s a risk that he passes and the unpopular VP takes over, but unless they make the same mistake again & run her in 2028 it’s not a big deal.