A good reason to tune out early results.

This is also a big reason to tune out the early results from places like Florida. If you'll recall everyone had a meltdown over Florida in 2022. They thought it meant a red wave Midterms. What actually happened was Florida shifted red by a large amount in 2022, but the nation did not.

I should also note that the largest polling error often happens in deep blue and red states. They don't get polled much during the cycle and turnout can be more volatile than the battleground states.

But this is a big reason why Kamala Harris could win the election despite say only winning the popular vote by 1-2 points. The data suggests the electoral college bias this year should be smaller than it was in 2020 - Biden needed to win the popular vote by about 4 points.