【Token估值】关于Token估值的浅谈！浅谈NeoPlace代币的估值/How to value the token? NeoPlace as a case
【导言：上一篇文章中分享了我对加密资产估值的看法，就为什么需要对加密资产进行估值，以及估值方法的选择运用等进行了探讨。】
这期我们谈一下代币（Token）的估值，相信对区块链感兴趣的朋友也会对Token的估值感兴趣，今天我以NeoPlace为例分享我对他们的代币NPT估值的分享，然后再下一篇文章中会继续深入探讨加密资产的估值话题。
【什么是NeoPlace?】
NeoPlace协议致力于打造一个全球库存来简化跨境电商交易，使得每一个人都可以在以太坊区块链上建造属于自>己的多合一的去中心化电子商店，在全球范围内推广他们的产品，进入全球库存管理，以及收益于交易的透明>性，创造性以及自由性。
NeoPlace的使命是重塑跨境电商行业，在这个平台上，卖家可以在区块链上面建立自己的线上商店以及市场平>台，买家可以使用加密货币购买商品。
【NeoPlace主要解决了什么问题？】
1） 现存跨境电商平台交易手续费高
2） 加密货币的消费用途非常有限
3） 现存电商平台过于中心化
4） 电商平台的信任问题
【我的看法】
我认为NeoPlace是非常有前景的项目，在了解到他们有发售代币的计划之后，在10月3日我有机会和团队进行面对面的交流，深入探讨了他们的商业模式以及Token的估值思路。
在没有深入分析Token价值之前，我看好这个项目的原因主要以下有两点：
1） 项目团队
团队对于项目的重要性不能强调更多，团队创始人拥有丰富的技术资历，CEO拥有工程师背景，对技术非常重视，而且拥有INSEAD商校 MBA学位，顾问团队中也有不少区块链和加密货币领域的专家，比如StartupToken的创始人Yacine Terai先生。
2）项目的商业模式
》项目瞄准的是还没出现巨头的市场，即支持加密货币作为支付货币的跨境电商市场，NeoPlace提供可以发挥加密货币作为货币支付手段功能的环境。
》直接的竞争对手很少，而且有更加完善和多样的功能服务。
》考虑到目前加密货币的市值达到千亿美元级别，这是一个巨大的待开发的市场。
虽然我不是专业的投资人，但在对NPT的价值进行了分析以及和团队见面讨论之后，我认为这个项目的内含价值是比较高的。
团队和项目给我的印象非常深刻：他们对项目的认知非常清晰，比如平台适合什么类型的商品，以及月销量在什么范围的卖家是他们的服务对象；也在增加买家和卖家方面有不少实质性进展，比如10月2日宣布的和万链(WanChain)的合作。
【估值思路】
我运用在商学院学习到的估值理论，结合这个项目的内涵，搭建了针对NPT估值的模型。
以下是和团队核心管理层Amine和Robert讨论后经过经改良的估值公式：
单个NPT内含价值= J
J = I /流通的NPT数量
NeoPlace 平台年手续费收入 = I
I=A x B x C x D x G
A = 市场容量
项目主要面向加密货币的持有人，考虑NeoPlace可能会更加接受主流加密货币（如比特币和以太币），所以潜在可消费的加密货币价值选择比特币和以太币，他们的合计市值占加密货币总市值超过60%，约1,300亿美元。
B = 流入跨境电商市场的货币量比例
这个比例没有太多可以参考的数据，但可以参考现有的电商市场渗透率，就是电商消费占总零售消费额的比例，考虑到中国拥有最多的电商消费人数和消费量，在2016年这个比例约16%，低于这个比例是比较合理的。
C = NeoPlace的市场份额
预计40%~80%是比较合理的范围，首先因为竞争对手不多，而且拥有一些比如团购等其他竞品没有的特色功能（主要竞争对手可能有Origin和Open Bazaar），还处在早期的市场。
D = 在NeoPlace平台上用于支付的加密货币的年平均流通次数
这方面的统计数据比较难找到，因为加密货币还没有广泛的用作消费结算，这个数字取决于平台自身和外部因素，比如交易速度和消费者需求等。
E = 使用NPT支付商品和服务的比例
G = 平台的平均手续费费率
I = NeoPlace年手续费收入
J = 单个NPT的内含价值
项目的估值是投资价值的参考，项目最终能否成功还是取决于内部和外部的因素，比如团队执行能力以及市场等因素。
NeoPlace的团队有很强的执行力，而且是为数不多的旨在解决实质问题的好项目。
期待下周三（10月10日）在英国伦敦举行由万链主办的Dragon's Den/Shark Tank-style presenting event看到NeoPlace发布更多的内容。
今天先分享这么多，下期我会继续分享更多加密资产估值方面的看法，欢迎Steemit的伙伴们继续关注我的主页：）
【Preface: In my last article, I shared some point of views regarding crypto-asset valuation, discussing why it matters to value crypto-asset and potential valuation method, etc.】
In this article, what I would like to focus on is the Token valuation or pricing, which I am sure blockchain believers might be interested in as well.
I will take NeoPlace as a case study to share how my valuation on NeoPlace’s token looks like.
Following this article, I will keep on sharing more findings on crypto-asset valuation.
【What is NeoPlace?】
The NeoPlace protocol will facilitate the cross-border e-commerce with the creation of a global inventory to help >sellers create their own e-shop/marketplace on the blockchain, promote their products world-widely, access global >inventory and benefits from transparency, creativity and freedom to do their business.
NeoPlace’s mission is to reshape the cross-border e-commerce. They create a platform where sellers are do their >business on Blockchain and buyers are able to make their purchase with cryptocurrency.
【What do problems NeoPlace aim at dealing with?】
1） High transaction fee on the existing e-commerce platform
2） Limited use on consumption for cryptocurrency
3） Exiting e-commerce platforms are centralized
4） The trust mechanism on the e-commerce platform
【How does NeoPlace look like in my idea?】
I hold the point of view that NeoPlace is a promising project in terms of their team and business model. And I knew that they have the plan to launch the first-time token sale, on October. 3 I had the opportunity to meet their team, discussing seriously on their business model and the way they value their Token.
Before I conducted an analysis of their Token value, I believe in this project because of the following reasons:
1）The team
We are aware that how important the team to a project.
Knowing that they have co-founders’ proven project experiences on technology, CEO with engineering backgrounds and MBA degree of INSEAD, a strong believer in technology-driven business, and well-know blockchain and cryptocurrency experts as their advisor, such as Mr. Yacine Tera, the founder of StartupToken.
2）NeoPlace business model
》What is unique is that NeoPlace target at a niche market with huge unmet demand which is cross-border e-commerce allowing payment in cryptocurrency.
》NeoPlace dedicates to create value to cryptocurrency by realizing crypto-payment on cross-border e-commerce.
》Compared with potential competitors, NeoPlace will make a commitment to more diversified functions.
》Considering that the cryptocurrency market cap is being a hundred billion level, it could be a huge market to be developed.
I am not a professional investor, but I believe NeoPlace is a serious project with significant investing value since I seriously analyzed the intrinsic value of NPT and discussed a lot with the team.
In addition, I got impressed by the team and the project:
• They have more than clear understanding on the project, such as what category of products could find their value on NeoPlace and what would sellers look like in terms of their sales level. Etc.
• NeoPlace has been constantly making real progress on introducing buyers and sellers, like on October.2 they announced a long-term partnership with WanChain.
【How I value NPT?】
To value NPT, I applied the valuation theories and techniques I have learned from business school into the establishment of a valuation model by taking into consideration the business context of NeoPlace.
Thanks to a productive interview with Amine and Robert, I managed to improve my model and here is the formula:
Value per NPT = Annual transaction fee revenue of NeoPlace / NPT number in circulation
Annual transaction fee revenue of NeoPlace = I
I=A x B x C x D x G
A = Total addressable market size
Cryptocurrency holders are regarded as the major buyers. Considering that NeoPlace would be more likely to support the leading cryptocurrency at their early stage (Bitcoin and Ethereum coin etc.), let’s look at the market cap of BTC and ETH in total which equals to approximately over $130 billion accounting for more than 60% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.
B = % of the major cryptocurrency holders make their purchase on the e-commerce
Limited relevant data regarding this ratio is found, but we could refer to the existing e-commerce to total retail sales ratio. Knowing that China has the biggest number of e-commerce consumers and transaction volume, it could be helpful to benchmark with China’s figure which is around 16% in 2016.
For cryptocurrency cross-border e-commerce, this ratio might make more sense to be lower than 16%.
C = % NeoPlace market share
40% ~ 80% should be a reasonable range of level due to:
• Few competitors
• Addition to some diversified functions compared to the competitors, such as group buying
• An undeveloped market
D = Cryptocurrency velocity in a year on NeoPlace(How many times of purchase will be made on average)
Due to the limited use of cryptocurrency as the medium of exchange, limited data was only accessible. The velocity is highly dependent on the internal and external factors, such as processing speed and consumers’need.
E = NPT as a percentage of the total currency paid(%)
G = Average Transaction fee rate (%)
I = Annual transaction fee revenue of NeoPlace
J = Value per NPT
Valuation is one of the important references for value investment, but to ensure the success of one project is subject to some internal and external factors, such as the execution of the strategy and the market, etc.
The future is bright for NeoPlace due to their strong execution and NeoPlace being dedicated to bringing solutions for the exiting problems.
I will also look forward to the Dragon's Den/Shark Tank-style presenting event next Wednesday in London organized by WanChain where NeoPlace is expected to pitch and share more with us.
Excellent! That’s all for today. More sharing about my findings and point of views will be followed very soon. Stay Tuned to my upcoming sharing in my channel.