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RE: Betting quiz: win 5 SBD! / Wettquiz: 5 SBD zu gewinnen!
Too late to break my head over this right now. Without any fancy calculations based the sharpest market odds, real chances of this match should be very close to...
Home 23.14%- Draw 26.71%- Away ~50.15%
Over 2.5 Goals 49.1% - Under 2.5 Goals ~50.9%
Fair odds Draw ~3.744
... couldn't resist trying
- Adding the numbers up for away win (1/13)+(1/16)+(1/11)+ ... = 44.306% win Leipzich
- Adding the numbers up for under 2.5 (1/17)+(1/24)-(1/13)+... = 40.1024% 2 goals or less
- Adding the numbers up for draw (1/20)+(1/9)+(1/14)+... = 25.4094% so 1 / 0.254094 = ~3.936 odds.
all odds combined give a 99.65079% market so not a 100% market if I got it right, it's quite late so I probably slipped up somewhere along the way.
Your first try above is wrong (you shouldn't show me bookmaker odds - calculation should be based on my odds!). :-)
However the idea you show below (second try) is great ... please check the exact numbers ...
I ran the numbers in excel, not sure where the mistake is.
Hereby I declare you as winner: congrats! Very well done. 5 SBD will be sent shortly.
But please, if you change your numbers, make a new comment so that I see when you found the correct results. Otherwise you make it very difficult for me to decide who was first!
Thanks ! I will make to make a new comment when editing something next time ! These type of contests are quite a lot of fun.
Yes, no problem - and nice to hear you enjoyed it! :) (SBD have been sent.)
Nice work ! And by far faster than I was. I needed quite a while to find the motivation to move to my laptop :)