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RE: Yes, Centralized vs Decentralized - We all Agree, but Where are We Now?
five quadrillion dollars
That's not gonna happen, obviously, because it exceeds the money supply by quite a margin. I think the global M3 is near 80 trillion usd.
The global broad money supply is ~$80T, yes. That assumes crypto only takes over the role of fiat currencies, so you can stop my graph at the $100T line (about 2024 or so). We are at $0.01T, so that's only a pathetic return of $100 per dime invested (or $1M on a hundy thrown in now). I'll give you that point. But the "obviously" part of your comment I won't.
What's is money? Does it include a central bank debt component? That's at $200T. The value of all derivatives is estimated at >$600T. The high-end valuation for all derivative contracts is $1.2 quadrillion dollars. But no one really knows, it could actually be much higher. My sensibility it is much higher.
We are also coming into a middle class explosion - one where capitalism lifts some 100,000 to 200,000 people out of poverty per day. Even if this rate slows, by the time we get out to 2030 to 2035, the total money/debt/collateralized obligation aggregate total will be 10x the ~$1Q+ it is now.
If Blockchain tech via fintech took over all of this space, that would be it's aggregate value. Maybe I even low-balled it.
Here's a good graphic on it:
But even if all these assets add up to, say, 1-2-3 quadrillion, you can't have another 1-2-3-5 on top of that because it's a zero-sum game where something must be spent to buy the crypto so that its price goes up.
(What's spendable is typically the money - in other words, best case scenario is the total replacement of money with crypto, so, say around 100 trillion).
But I think crypto will be in the triple-digit billion or low/single digit trillion range. Which is 100-1000x compared to current valuation...
ok. I like this number too.
as my stock friend would say, a hundred-bagger ;D
Yeah, we'll be alright for a few lifetimes I guess.