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RE: Forget The P/E Ratio - This Is The New Ratio To Look At...
this was a fine article I hope you wrote it yourself!
The one thing that in my opinion is missing in such ana anlysis is the fact that interest rates are very low right now. As a result assets should be valued a little higher since a) you cannot just put your money in the bank and make interest and b) the fact that money is cheap will also inflate asset prices.
i dont know exactly how strong this effect is going to be however.
Yet overall i feel that you analysis is spot on and i also dont want to be involved with stocks at this time.
I agree that interest rates play a role but I think it's also for an additional reason. Lower interest means the cost of debt is cheaper for a corporation thus future projected earnings are higher (due to expected lower WACC). Therefore historic PE ratio could be higher on average because of higher expected future earnings. So therefore, as you pointed out there is increased demand for Stocks(instead of bonds/bank interest) to generate a return on the investor side, plus on the corporation side there is higher expected earnings thus higher valuations.
Very true.
That's why rising interest rates can be a disaster for these companies. Their debt will continue to grow as their payments on interest alone start to balloon. If their business doesn't actually start making real profits, they just keep digging a deeper hole as their cost of borrowing increases.
Of course I wrote it.
I agree with you about assets inflating in value... However, the companies that are the most inflated in value have almost zero tangible assets. And the intellectual or technological assets that they do own are often just a dream or idea.
The companies with the highest P/E multiples (think Netflix, Tesla, etc.) are the ones that have the 'biggest dreams.' If they can't execute on those dreams, then there is nothing left to back up their proposed value.