The FED paused the interest rate.
The last increase of the federal funds rate was about 3 months ago. It seems that the FED won't increase the rate anymore. The average period of the rate pause is around 5 months. If the history repeats, it would be possible for us to see the federal funds rate cut Jan 2024.
Source: Take a look at the historical table about the federal funds rate pause duration.
While past Powell's statements were not reliable, his recent words have been reliable. So, I think not to repeat the past history of 70s and 80s, they will pause the rate longer than 5 months. As you can see, the maximum period of the rate was 8 months. So, if a worst scenario occur, this cycle period of the rate pause will be ended Mar or Apr 2024. It's up to the fundamentals of U.S. economy.
Today, U.S. unemployment rate will be released. The forecast is 3.8%. If the rate is more than expected, it would be pressing the FED's monetary policies. In the last century, when the unemployment rate was more than 4.5%, they have changed the tightening position to easing several times.
Source: How were the market conditions for 1 month after the federal funds rate cut?
The beginning of the federal funds rate cut would be risky for cryptos and stocks. Prepare to hedge your investment portfolio before the next rate cut.
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