Recession is coming? 🤔
After inversions of 10y-3m spread, the unemployment rate has increased within 16 months. Then, recessions occured. The latest data of the unemployment rate is 3.9%. It's very close to 4.0% which can change the monetary policies of the Fed.
Through this data, the unemployment rate might increase in the near future. However, I hope that it will be delayed more 1y. I don't wanna see increasing unemployment rate this year.
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