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RE: Up or Down? Is this a dead-cat bounce?
Good post. Yeah, we are still in the early days alright. Most people I speak to have never even heard of Bitcoin, nevermind Ethereum, IOTA or all these crazy ICOs. And this volatility is normal for any crypto veteran, 21% down is a walk in the park.
My best guess is that there is some big money waiting on the sidelines for the scaling problem to be solved. Lets see what happens in August, I'm cautiously optimistic there won't be a chain split, and we'll have Segwit. I've read about a lot of hedge fund guys ready to pounce once we're through these growing pains. Watch out below once the City of London and Wall Street enters the fray, then we'll see some real bubbles.
Chain split is almost impossible unless they get a clean 50/50 divide, or they do multiple hard forks to achieve a chain split. The minority hash can't operate a bitcoin blockchain without difficulties resetting. To reset difficulties, you have to hard fork again. Furthermore, the minority chain is likely to be very unprofitable without a difficulty reset, so all the hashing power would switch back to the main chain anyway. I could see a movement springing out of the fork, like someone uses that opportunity to 'make a better bitcoin' but it would likely just be an altcoin. Bitcoin Unlimited people have never had any intention of being an altcoin, complete dominance is their only goal, but now that they got the other side to cave on 2MB, I think they are going to be more open to middle ground.
https://hardfork.cafe/