RE: England must press home their advantage
The slope undoubtedly helped but I believe that Archer has hit 15 batsmen since his international debut significantly more than any other bowler in the same period. He pinned Hashim Amla on his World Cup debut and knocked Alex Carey's helmet off in the Semi-Final games played at the Oval and Edgbaston respectively so it wasn't just Lord's where batsmen have found him difficult to combat. The more pressing issue for Australia's batsmen is picking his pace and length as there is no discernable difference in his run-up and action when he bowls the bouncer. You can have as much time in the nets facing a bowling machine that is banging it around your throat but it's not nearly the same as facing the man himself. What Australia need is time in the middle against him.
I'd expect the pitch at Leeds to be fairly flat and the forecast is good so in reality runs on the board in the 1st innings will determine this game. Headingley has always had something for bowlers who are willing to pitch it up and induce the drive so while England might have got excited by the scene of Aussie batsmen calling for the physio every few overs in reality they need to be more calculating in their use of the short pitched stuff if they are to take 20 wickets in the 3rd Test. I'd also expect the pitch to spin fairly early on so the man who took as many wickets in that 4th innings as Archer, Jack Leach will also be a factor for the Australians.
I think the one thing you forgot is Starc has had a rest now and is sure to return to strengthen their bowling line up as well. He is always good for a few wickets early on and I am sure they will rest Siddle.
I was initially surprised that he hasn't played already but there were some interesting stats about him doing the rounds recently. From memory, I heard one that over the last year he is averaging 58 with the ball against top 6 batsmen and going at over 4 an over. Look at his stats in that time in general it's only Sri Lanka that he's been successful against and that's not realy saying much.
While he has great wicket-taking abilities I think Australia relise that in a 4 man attack it's a big risk to play him as he does leak runs and he is injury prone.
Cummins is the premier fast bowler and an automatic pick, Hazlewood bowled well in the first innings at Lord's and I though Pattinson was Australia's best bowler in the first innings at Edgbaston. Siddle is the work horse, again in a 4 man attack you might need someone to bowl long steady spells and Starc isn't going to give you that. It's difficult to see whose position he'd take.
Away from the quicks I've bet on Nathan Lyon to be the leading wicket taker @7.5, I think it'll be a fairly dry flat pitch which will take spin quite early on and so that's decent price in my mind