The data trap: When more isn’t better. It’s just noisier: Weekly Winning Strategies

Every so often, we get asked to discuss competitive intelligence projects, and we hear something. Whether it’s B2B SaaS, legacy logistics, or even medtech, it doesn’t matter. And it’s normally Marketing Directors. They introduce their needs as “we need more data before we can act.” or “we realise we dont have the data”. It’s your data trap.

But nine times out of ten, they already have too much data. What they’re really lacking is interpretation, narrative, and direction. And you know what? Most of these data seekers tend to agree with us.

You don’t need more data. You need sharper thinking.

You need someone who can use Humint and deep research and analysis and answer specific questions, usually about competitor moves, go-to-market strategies, customer shifts, team capacity, and margin pressure. And then connect the dots in a way that says:

Here’s what this means. Here’s what could happen next. Here’s what we should do about it.
That’s not market research. That’s not another 100 rows in Excel.

That’s strategic intelligence.

INSIGHT ≠ DATA

FORESIGHT ≠ FORECAST

Most strategy teams confuse insight with information. But they’re not the same. Information tells you what happened. Insight tells you why it matters.

And foresight? Foresight doesn’t come from better predictive models—it comes from the guts to say, “Here’s the game we’re in, and here’s how it could change.”

Look at companies like HubSpot around 2016. Their competitors were focused on product parity, pushing features. HubSpot saw the pattern—tools were commoditising, but the buyer’s journey was fragmenting. Insight. They doubled down on ecosystem strategy and education. Foresight.

Now, they own the inbound narrative. That wasn’t a data play. That was a thinking play.

Qual and Quant are worthless without context
Have you ever seen a team swim through 78 pages of survey data and still say, “We’re not sure”? That’s because, without the lens of the market, Qual and Quant are just noise.

Want to fix that? Start asking sharper questions:

Why now? What’s changed in the competitive environment that makes this moment critical?
Who benefits? Which players gain if we don’t act—or if we act too slowly?
What don’t we know? Where are the blind spots we’re too scared to admit?
Those aren’t data questions.

Those are decision questions.

“Yeah, yeah, yeah:… is a signal.
Let’s talk about that shrug—the “yeah, yeah, yeah, but…” that prospects give you.

That’s fear talking. That’s status quo bias. That’s a leader who knows they’re overwhelmed but would rather gather one granular data set than make one real choice.

Push on that. It’s that data trap.

Say: “If I gave you 20 more interviews, what would you actually do differently?”

Watch them freeze.

Then you’ve got them.

Because now you’re not solving for data—you’re solving for confidence in action.

And that’s the business you want to be in. Confidence is what clients pay for, even when they think they’re paying for “insight.”

Competitor analysis isn’t a rearview mirror
This is where so many teams get it wrong.

They think competitor analysis is about watching what happened last quarter. But real intelligence—the kind that drives strategy—is about understanding intent. Not just what competitors did but why they did it and where that move led them next.

Take Zendesk vs. Freshdesk circa 2018. Zendesk focused on enterprise contracts, leaning into CX integrations. Freshdesk went hard into pricing and localisation in emerging markets. If you only looked at revenue, you’d miss the signal. But if you looked at motion and momentum, you’d see Freshdesk’s play was about building market density, not margin.

That kind of insight lets you beat a competitor before they appear in your pipeline.

Stop waiting for that perfect picture.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: you will never have all the data.

And even if you did, it wouldn’t tell you what to do.

Competitor strategy isn’t chess—it’s poker.

You make moves based on incomplete information, but you get better by reading the table, sensing patterns, and trusting your judgment.

So what do you do?

You look at what the competition is not doing.
You watch where capital is not flowing.
You listen to the words your competitors avoid using.
That’s your edge. That’s the insight that turns heads in a boardroom.

The frame that changes the game
Try this next time a client says they need more data:

“Are you looking to learn something new, or just validate what you already believe?”

That question cuts deep. Because if all they want is confirmation, more data is just a comfort blanket. But if they’re ready to be challenged and make a bold move, then what they need isn’t research.

They need a sparring partner.

They need a contrarian lens.

They need competitive intelligence that speaks the truth, not just the trend.

The final word: The strategist’s Role in the data trap
You’re not a data collector. You’re not a note-taker. You’re not here to play it safe.

You’re here to look into the noise of the market and find the unfair advantage.

To speak up when the CMO says, “We need more data” (or my pet hates “Granular data”) and say:

“No. What you need is the courage to act on what you already know. And if we don’t know, we need insight from competitive intelligence, not a spreadsheet.”

Another great question here is:

“What do you mean by granular data?” Enjoy the silence.

That’s the shift.

That’s the moment you move from consultant to trusted advisor.

Because anyone can tell you what the market did.

Only a few can tell you what it means—and what to do next.

That’s your edge. Own it.

And next time someone hits you with “yeah, yeah, yeah, but…”

Smile and say:

“You’re not data-poor. You’re clarity-poor. Let’s fix that.”

Let’s talk…

https://www.octopusintelligence.com/the-data-trap-when-more-isnt-better-its-just-nosier/