Very interesting analysis. Your point "from a probability standpoint, this is the highest one..." is spot on.

I know I might be going apples to oranges here, but it really reminded me of similar experiences in the commodities market - specifically silver. After huge spikes, it settled into a "new normal."

Guess it will depend on the Bitcoin concept itself. If it has staying power, then it just might settle into a "new normal" range instead of imploding.

Two big factors for me are a) silver has an actual physical component, Bitcoin is digital, and b) silver exists regardless of electricity...

source: www.kitco.com