Crypto Analysis Report 3-30-19...I'm Liking The Price Action On Bitcoin
Trading options allows investors to bet whether the price of the best-known cryptocurrency will reach a certain level at a set point in time, and looking at one of the most popular trades on the books, a sharp rally in 2019 is unlikely. “We have a $10k September expiry, which is currently priced with a 5 delta,” said Goh, speaking about one of the larger trades in the options market.
That was probably “a bullish trade that was made last year when investors were still discussing the short-term possibility of making new highs,” said Goh. But, according to options traders, the probability it trades to $20,000 by June is low, in fact, it’s zero — at least according to options pricing.
But the options market can turn on a dime.
And that turn on a dime could be in May.
A Bitcoin ETF proposal, Recently, Bitwise Asset Management with NYSE Arca filed for a ETF proposal. The SEC said Friday it will “either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change” by May 16, 2019.
The SEC is also reviewing VanEck and SolidX bitcoin’s ETF proposal filed. On Friday, the SEC designated May 21 as the date on which it would either make a firm decision.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin is at a five-week high and continues to form this basing round bottom. I like to call it the smiley face.
Which looks very similar to the smiley face that Gold formed back in December.
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The critical levels that remain in play for Bitcoin are $3000 on the downside and the daily supply at $4600.
However, if an Bitcoin ETF is approved, that daily supply is going to get sliced through like a hot knife slicing through a bar of butter.
$6k will be the tough one to get through even with an ETF I believe. $4,500 is ready to go and will probably lead to some shorts getting squeezed above $5k.
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Never thought about the short squeeze, that should help price as well.
very good analysis. but i dont think the etf gets aproved in 2019.
i hope we get a bullrun early 2020
Conservatively, I agree with you, 4 wks seems to be a bit fast.