RE: Regarding the crash in BTC yesterday, did somebody know something?
This is why it crashed...
Posted this elsewhere but relevant here:
When markets are understood, the idea that everyone can make money is not only inaccurate but impossible and laughable. Everyone making money means there is no market, because who would be taking the other side of the trade?
It is no mistake that individuals begin to like the same sorts of fashions that everyone is wearing. In a quest to change, the majority of society ends up changing together, moving towards similar desires and away from similar dislikes. Therefore, what the market is offering provides the exact thing that will lure the trader into the crowd.
For example, someone who has little experience investing wants to get involved because everyone else in their social circle is, ads are all over tv and even their nightly newscasters are talking a lot more about how the market is so good. In this environment you can be certain there will be lots of “helping hands” to welcome this investor to the crowd, teach them to be a part of the crowd and initiate them into the world of the blind leading the blind.
The market is unlikely to reverse to any significant degree until almost everyone is on one side. Which means almost everyone who joined that party late is going to lose. A bunch of people may just decide to wait, but so will the market. And if people are divided then the market will move in a ranging fashion.
People are the catalyst and without people to create an extreme the market won’t hit an extreme and reverse–remember the market does not act on its own, we…the people… are the market. In other words, the boom and bust cycles will not end. We progress and regress and then progress again.
Until almost everyone is in the trend, it won’t stop. The trend will keep going, enticing more people in, and when it reaches critical mass (which it can’t do without pretty much everyone on board) a reversal occurs. This change in fortune (for the worse) causes concern and then panic as a full reversal occurs. And as the mood of society continues to grow darker people feel more hopeless and give up fanciful notions of making money with crypto and so it will continue to drop.
In other words, the very thing which lures people in droves (big returns) ironically means that most of those people will be on the losing end of that exchange. In another ironic twist, when people clamor into the market all at once out of greed and a belief that a new era has begun, they bring about the exact opposite. @pawsdog
Wholeheartedly agree with this. But the question is, is now the right time to be applying this graphic? Now, this picture of "valuation phases" has been circulating around internet/reddit since BTC hit 1700 for the first time. 2000 for the first time. 4500.. etc.
And even then, the same reasons as you've outlined have been used to explain the correction. I'm by no means discounting the merit of what you're saying. It's 100% true. But I guess the conversation of "who is everyone in the trend?" is a matter of perspective. And the answer to this question, is really what drives your forecast of when this party will be over.
From the loosest understanding of investment participation, there's only a small fraction of people who have heard of, no less, invest in crypto. So there's lots of room to grow. Now if we minimize our window of "everyone" to the financially literate? People who like speculative investments? People who just like to gamble? Then I think we are definitely approaching the mania phase - though I certainly don't hope so.
It would seem that the IRS is going back as early as 2013 to look for capital gains taxes to apply to the Bitcoin community. I believe that is where the crash came from .
Here is a link to my post https://steemit.com/tax/@sponge-bob/first-they-laughed-then-scratched-their-heads-then-banned-it-now-can-we-please-tax-it
Great words. Ironic the power of bitcoin in the hodl perspective. Non traders represent quite a large part of the crypto market. Mostly they are those who bought early for a laugh, or on the almost gen x premise that as governments probe lives more and more, peoples desire for anonimity increases.
I bought myself 30 000 bitcoins for my 30th birthday on october the 8th 2009.
My shots at the first bar that night cost more.
I wrote down id details on a scrap of paper and chucked it in storage. Imagine my surprise in june when i cleaned out my storage and found that paper and keyed in the wallet address to my computer! Your comment hits home to me because the frantic flat earthers who see great returns as the power of crypto currencies are those who diminsh its nature and its power. Greed and desire to be on trend for trade returns now are causing rapid measures by ass holes to regulate something that, by virtue of its inception, is an altrustic technological caveat to privacy.
Things like hyip and mining scams appeal to these quick fix "get in before the bubble bursts" luddites. While forcing even more scrutiny, they are getting shafted of their dividends. Creating the bubble they fear most.
I have no computer coding knowledge but have spent 2500 btc purchasing scripts things from the scammers. The algorithm and strategies, without the ponzi menalities are brilliant. My goal is to build a blockchain "social protectorate" for people to generate enough passive income anonymously to address their traceble government or corprate debt.
The transfer of digital asset to cash is so easy now, they can direct debit their debitors and gradually gain happiness.
I need help to develop this further. But ill find it. The anomaly in the 300 or so people that are doing this is that they are aware of the value of the concept, not the trend.
As traders give away their satoshi for a grab at a quick fix when the price dips. The HODL crowd are storing en mass knowing that their privacy in the future will mean more than a buck on a trend.
Simple maths, lack of greed and patience may finally be the traits that change the world. If the collateral damage is trend jumping regulation magnets, perhaps their will be calm.
I really thank you for your post.
I actually had a great idea about such a coin this week which would generate passive income each month for the holders and would make sure everyone who joins new will have passive income in the next month. Like a huge open source ponzi that last for ever where everyone, EVERYONE can prosper easily at any time...
Well i have made a it student interested who will be doing project work about this with a few other students the next months. I plan to rejoin the evolution mid march, when i will be back from my meditation trip to nepal, stay tuned for more ;)
(DMD)
brilliant, and the current pattern and chatter on the streets is exactly that. I'm a firm believer in the technology, and been onboard for years, but when the fella changing your car tyres is telling you to buy bitcoin, mania has arrived.
yeah!!!
Totally agree, I was reading an article on a forum wherein users were asking if it was a good idea to take out second mortgages, or other low interest loans in order to buy BTC and then just use the profits to pay back the loans. At that point I know the the cult is enticing a bunch of people to drink the Kool-aid in order to ascend to heaven. Talk about being fucking irresponsible with your finances. Unless you have nothing to lose, are terminal and have no intentions of paying it back then I would not embrace getting loans to buy BTC.. lol
That is exactly what was being said during the dot.com bubble. Word for word.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@foxyfire/how-to-make-money-from-the-falling-bitcoin
Well said. A majority of the people who have invested or are interested in investing don't understand what they're getting themselves into.
This is true, its vicious in this market
@pawsdog, where do you think we are at overall for bitcoin and altcoin? My opinion we are no where near the steep climb. More likely around "media attention" for bitcoin and "take off" in altcoins. However outside forces like government enforcing taxes will definitely create blips along the way.
I think thee is still a lot to occur. I think we have to have a few catastrophic events along the way. Government crack down, price of mining and transaction fees, crack down, closure or some large conspiracy around Bitfinex.. There will be much more than hiccups along the way.. We are still in our infancy.. I'm not even sure BTC as we know it will be the dominant coin of the future. That said there is still plenty of opportunity to make money in this market, up down or sideways.
Where did you get this data. According to coin desk it did not fall below 10k
$10,977.69
1.09%
Today's Open$10,859.56Today's High$11,156.15Today's Low$10,705.13
Change$118.13Market Cap$0.184TSupply16,715,863
Comment is 2 days old.. not sure which data you are referring too..