RE: Bitcoin Has Not Yet Fundamentally Recovered At This Time – A Mathematical Case
One thing I want to share apart from adoption (which is the main thing discussed here), that bitcoin is NOT a cash replacement. It is hardly a digital gold, which it is trying to prove.
The reason why people invest in it, is the parabolic price movement. personally I fell, at this point investing in bitcoin is at a very low risk, compared to if someone had invested at 17k $.
This is coming from the fact that from 19k, the price has gone as low as 6k then currently at ~ 9.5k. This is the accumulation phase. Although it is very likely to hit a fresh all time low. But even so, BTC is known to bounce hard. So I am very comfortable to invest at this price point.
Overall I am bullish about BTC. Here are my reasons for it:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoaritra/btc-usdt-the-big-picture
Thanks for the comments. I tend to expect that bitcoins will eventually bounce back as well... although there is no basis to state it would bounce back hard, whatever hard means numerically. Maybe it means within weeks? You said BTC is "known" to bounce hard but if you went through its history you would see that it's also known to not bounce back hard, as it did in 2014, when it took over years to return to its prior high levels. Mathematically, it was shown in the referenced paper that the departure from its life long model currently is only second to the departure in 2014, so there's going by facts and data and going by feelings.
I'm not sure what not being a cash replacement implies here. Does it mean that if its user growth rate continues to decline its value can continue to rise opposite to that data? I followed your link and I saw a paragraph or so of analysis based on price data; which price is an expressed output data rather than inputs and so is unable to discern much farther than the pattern it is currently expressing. Price data and charts based solely on price, include Elliot wave methods, are not sufficient for true analysis that will ever be accurate beyond very short time frames.