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RE: Witness SBD pegging policy update

in #witness-category8 years ago

This is somewhat exacerbated by the 'SBD stability' feature which reduces repayment rates should SBD debt exceed 10% of STEEM market cap. It is currently at about 7%, meaning SBD holders are close to taking a 'haircut'.

I get 5.7% at the moment.

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5.7% is by 7-day median. If you check latest price, it's about 7%.

The total supply and sbd supply will have changed by the time the price feed catches up to the current price. I would expect it to be somewhere between 6% and 6.5% in 3.5 days when the feed catched up to the current spot price.

I do not understand what the code is doing but by my estimate it is already 6.6% right now:

Feed price is 0.145 USD/STEEM * total supply 198618992.113 STEEM = market cap 28799753.856385 USD.

SBD supply 1893566.413 / market cap = 6.6%

Perhaps my formula is incorrect.

The latest feed update is 0.119 so there is an 18% drop in market cap left to reach the current price. The supply increase is slightly below 1% per day (1.75 million / 199 million) and that would only matter if the price doesn't drop by at least 1%/day. The pace of debt reduction is likely <1%/day (but jumpy as it depends when large conversions occur).

I expect to reach 7% quite soon and something close to 8% appears quite likely within a few days. Reaching 10% or higher is not unlikely at all.

Currently,

  "virtual_supply": "212716237.198 STEEM",
  "current_supply": "199335134.831 STEEM",
  "current_sbd_supply": "1886630.621 SBD",
  "median_sbd_price": {
    "base": "0.162 SBD",
    "quote": "1.149 STEEM"
  },

So the percentage = 1 - 199335134.831 / 212716237.198 = 6.3%
Actually, 1886630.621 * (1.149 / 0.162) + 199335134.831 = 212716237.198
If calculate with the price I fed last time

  "sbd_exchange_rate": {
    "base": "0.133 SBD",
    "quote": "1.136 STEEM"
  },

then virtual supply should be 1886630.621 * (1.136 / 0.133) + 199335134.831 = 215,449,513.669 ,
the percentage = 1 - 199335134.831 / 215,449,513.669 = 7.48%

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