Tracking Hurricane Irma - Is Our Lucky Streak Over in Florida?
Huricane Irma
If you live anywhere from Florida to North Carolina, keep your eyes on this one just in case and have a plan to "board up" and take a mini-vacation out of town if you live in the direct path. Tomorrow they could forecast a curve out to sea, then Wednesday forecast it back into Florida - we all know how that goes.
GOES-EAST / NOAA
Forecast models are coming into agreement about a more Westerly path, with the exception of the GFS, it is still holding a North turn over the Bahamas just before Florida with an impact in North Carolina. ALL models are forecasting at least a CAT 4 hurricane with at least 135mph winds. Currently the system is expanding in size and has a growing wind field, meaning it's impacts will be over a larger area.
while the post edit period is open.
Firday 11AM Advisory - Track adjusted slightly West in this Advisory
CMC/GEM forecast model for Sunday September 10, 2017
HWRF Wind Field Forecast through Friday September 8, 2017
Frontal Boundary for the Block
The frontal boundary dropping down across the US ( shown below) will be the key player in setting up the Florida deflector shield. It was expected to be strong enough to curve Irma North, but the latest runs are showing a stronger high pressure ridge in the Atlantic and a weaker boundary. We will see how this plays out in the next few days.
It's been almost 12 years since Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida in October of 2005, only 6 months after our wedding.
Wilma was forecast to hold it's CAT 1 strength (75mph) as it made landfall on the Southwest coast and lose strength as it made its way to the Northwest across the state. Well, we all know how that went down... just hours before landfall it began a rapid intensification cycle as it crossed over the extremely warm Gulf Stream current water. It made landfall and continued to grow in size and strength even as it made it's way across land. It exited Palm Beach county as a CAT 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph and gusts to 145mph. We had the pleasure of having the eye pass directly over the apartment we lived in at the time in Boca Raton. Needless to say it did not go well. Concrete power poles snapped like twigs. Our area had no running water for 2 weeks, and no power for 3.5 weeks. Thankfully I had an SUV and was able to drive over fallen palm trees and berms to get out of the community and drive North to Melbourne the next day where we stayed with friends.
We have not had any significant tropical impacts since Wilma. Even us hurricane-hardened Floridians know our limits and have our criteria for getting out of the way of land-falling storms.
Fingers crossed - Keep your eyes on this storm (and the invest system behind it) to be on the safe side.
Have a plan in place, just in case!
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Thanks for reading!
I'm never moving to Hurricane-prone states. Never! The risk of loosing everything is just too great, especially with the whole climate change thing.
I hear ya, good thing is the building codes are really good after Andrew. We don't get a lot of structural damage aside from roof tiles and such, but the infrastructure (power/water, etc) gets taken out every dang time, so you have a week or two of caveman living. Luckily we have been in a freak dry spell for 12 years, but that just makes us overdue. :-/
Keep safe @steempowerpics and family, and everyone on the huricane path.
Thank you Arlyn, we have the week to watch and prepare just in case it hold its current path.
Good topic & post.
I have a lot of family in Naples that were impacted by Wilma. My grandmother's home was damaged beyond repair which uprooted her and almost all her neighbors/friends to have to move.
Almost all the 100+ year old banyan trees in my mother's neighborhood were uprooted and eventually died off.
As a third generation native Floridian we've learned one can never have enough food, water, boards and gas for the generator.
That is so true. Better to be prepared. Wilma was the worst one I went through, since it was the first time going though the eye, and we got both sides of it. We would have left the day before if the forecast showed it would be a cat 3. If forecast stays on us, we will def shutter up and head out for this one. Have to wait and see how it progresses.
I surely hope not. Have a plan people! Food water, refuge, escape plan. The basics must be covered!
Indeed! We have to hope for the turn, but prepare just in case.
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I live in Ft Lauderdale Florida right on the East coast pray for us.
Informative post thanks for sharing @steempowerpics
very good post, i will resteem it ;)
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