Steemit Business Intelligence: How SBD Price Movement is Changing Payout Preference

In this recent contribution I analyzed the change in trading behavior brought about by the movement in Steem Dollar price. I used the same chart below to show the inflection point in the Steem Dollar price somewhere in the beginning of December.

When the Steem Dollar price shoot up, the 50-50 payout became obviously more rewarding. I wanted to understand how much impact the Steem Dollar price movement had on the payout preference of content creators.

Delimitation

This will be a comparative analysis on the payout preference selection of content creators between November 21-30 (10 Days) before Steem Dollar price picked up momentum, and December 1-10 (10 Days) when the upward movement of Steem Dollar price happened. I wanted to do a 15 days comparison, but the published works from December 14 have not been paid out at the time of the analysis.

This analysis will only cover the payout selection on posts and will exclude comments. I used arcange's Steem SQL Public Database to acquire the data-points related payout selection in the VOAuthorRewards table.

Methodology

To get the data related to payout selection distribution, the actual rewards in Steem Dollar, and the top rewarded authors in Steem Dollars between the period of November 21-30 and December 1-10 by running the below SQL Queries:

SELECT *
FROM VOAuthorRewards (NOLOCK)
WHERE timestamp>= CONVERT(datetime,'11/24/2017')
AND timestamp< CONVERT(datetime,'12/1/2017')

SELECT *
FROM VOAuthorRewards (NOLOCK)
WHERE timestamp>= CONVERT(datetime,'12/1/2017')
AND timestamp< CONVERT(datetime,'12/11/2017')

I removed the comments by running the =RIGHT(Text,Number of Characters) formula in excel and filtered out the result beginning with re-.

I then plotted the data-points in an excel spreadsheet to create the charts and visually present the data.

The Analysis

Before & After Payout Preference Distribution

The next two charts will show the preferential distribution of payout selection made by content creators in the two periods being compared.

There is a considerable change in the payout type selection behavior from 100% to 50-50 between the two periods being compared, from 12.22% (100% SP) on November 21-30 the number of power up posts went down to less than 10% on December 1-10. I was also expecting more active posting on the December 1-10 period, but the data said otherwise. Here are the data-points used in the charts in a table:

Period	Payout Selection	Post Count	% Distribution
Nov 21-30	50-50	97043	87.70%
Nov 21-30	100% SP	13523	12.22%
Nov 21-30	Declined Payout	89	0.08%
Dec 1-10	50-50	98051	90.01%
Dec 1-10	100% SP	10854	9.96%
Dec 1-10	Declined Payout	31	0.03%

The data returned a slightly lower number (-1719) of post for the December 1-10 period when compared to the November 21-30. It may be taking time for the recent price movement to affect the change in actively posting, but it is for sure already changing the payout selection decision.

30 Day Payout Preference Trend

In this chart I wanted to present a full 30 days trend of distribution of payout preference. This covers the period of November 21 to December 20. Here it can be seen that from a starting point of as high as 14% of posts 100% powered up at the beginning of the period being analyzed, it has continuously gone down to as low as 5% at the end of the period.

Here is the data shown in a table:

Date	50-50	100% SP	Declined Payout
11/21/2017	9443	1550	10
11/22/2017	9315	1319	10
11/23/2017	9552	1202	8
11/24/2017	9828	1289	12
11/25/2017	9490	1315	6
11/26/2017	9376	1329	4
11/27/2017	9979	1395	10
11/28/2017	9878	1289	11
11/29/2017	10004	1274	8
11/30/2017	9690	1505	10
12/1/2017	9477	1134	3
12/2/2017	8293	991	1
12/3/2017	9008	948	1
12/4/2017	9967	1217	0
12/5/2017	10198	1073	5
12/6/2017	10841	1335	3
12/7/2017	10578	1097	3
12/8/2017	9887	1011	4
12/9/2017	9757	994	5
12/10/2017	10045	1054	6
12/11/2017	9523	1141	7
12/12/2017	9923	1040	1
12/13/2017	10635	1078	2
12/14/2017	10627	944	1
12/15/2017	11307	746	1
12/16/2017	11405	751	1
12/17/2017	11951	638	1
12/18/2017	12475	685	1
12/19/2017	13174	724	0
12/20/2017	2878	163	0

The data for 12/20/2017 (today) is partial. This data is being presented for the purpose of showing the distribution between the preference on payout. If the current price of Steem Dollar is kept to where it is currently (my hope is that it goes even higher), this selection behavior is likely to continue to trend towards less and less content creators choosing the 100% SP option.

Top Steem Dollar Earners

I also wanted to look at the data of Steem Dollar reward distribution per Author between the two periods. The chart below shows the Top 20 Authors who were rewarded with the most number of Steem Dollars for the November 21-30 period. There was a total of 157,671 Steem Dollar reward for this period, and 15,308 (9.68%) went to the top 0.11% authors (20/17,654)

For December 1-10 period, there was an increase of total Steem Dollar rewards by 57,151 Steem Dollar, getting the total Steem Dollar reward to 214,823. In terms of distribution the top 20/17053 (0.12%) authors got the sum of 20,305 (9.45%)

Conclusion

There's a number of changes in the behavior patterns of Steemians with the recent movement in Steem and Steem Dollar prices. One of those changes was earlier highlighted in this recent contribution where the trading behavior changes were analyze.

This analysis shows us how Steemians are making decisions in payout selection. A great majority chooses the 50-50 rewards, and the distribution of authors making this selection increases when the Steem Dollar price is high.

Taking the closing price of Steem Dollar at the end of the periods being compared (November 30, and December 10) Steemians in total made some $205,640 in the 10 days period of November 21-30, then $1,538,129 the following 10 days between December 1-10. The recent price movement is making a lot of difference to many Steemians specially those who's been active in the platform since Steem was priced at $0.07. I believe this to be only the beginning. I feel great about the decision to continuously power up. With an upvote worth $.60, Steem Dollar priced at $10, and Steem Priced at $3; I am able to give a value of $2.33 for Authors choosing 50-50 reward payout. Where I am, this is an equivalent of 117 PHP which can pay for a decent meal.

This is not only an exciting time for all of us Steemians, this is also a really good time to campaign for growing the user-base and share the currency of love.

---

Posted on Utopian.io - Rewarding Open Source Contributors

---