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RE: Steem Analytics - Distribution of Earnings
Thanks for the analysis. The most zoomed-in chart of earnings suggests a kind of censored data model. How many users make exactly 0? A chart starting at 0 with $0.001 increments could be very revealing. I suspect that a large number of users make 0 or some tiny amount, with a sharp downwards break to the "exponential curve." If so, earnings would be best modeled as a 2 step process: 1. The probability of receiving $0 (or whatever the cut-off is) and the distribution of earnings, given positive earnings. This model also points to the process generating earnings. A large number of members make 0 (by not participating?) and the rest make earnings described by some smooth function up to random error.
Hey @rufusfirefly, that's a great point, thanks!
There is definitely a break between 0.000 and 0.015 due to the "minimum payout" threshold, under which posts which have an expected payout of less than 0.02 (so 0.015 after curation) do not actually pay out to users.
So you are right, there are a very large number of users who earn 0.000 - due to no votes received or insufficient votes to reach 0.02 payout on any post (I only include users in the author earnings distribution who make at least one post or comment).
Building an actual model of the earnings distribution would probably require looking at the distribution of the underlying reward shares (i.e. the raw vote amounts allocated to posts) with a conversion function to earnings payouts.
That underlying distribution will also most likely need separate processes between users that receive 0 votes/reward-shares and the remaining distribution.
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