Steemit Good News Story #3 SBD Bull Run and Steemit Winners back by Data

The crypto market is a volatile markets with major swings every day. However since I joined Steemit back in June of this year, the price of STEEM and SBD has not seen major movements. Until now and since the latter half of November we have seen the price of STEEM rise to $1.96 and the price of SBD rise to $14.04

With the price of SBD rising as high as $14.04, this is going to bring some winners. Many people sold on the uptrend and have made a tidy sum. Many of these have also re-invested this into steemit by buying STEEM with their profits.

The aim of this analysis was to bring a good news story of winners on Steemit backed by data. During this time of high SBD prices many people used the opportunity to cash in some SBD and made a very heathy return. This is good news. But the analysis also gave me the opportunity to mash up data from Steemit and from Coinmarketcap to get a better understanding of any correlation between the two. All findings are shown below.

To carry out this analysis I first used Power BI to connect to coinmarketcap.com and pull the historic pricing of SBD from 11 Nov to 11 December. To do this, I connected to the table using a simple web connect to the url

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem-dollars/historical-data/?start=20171111&end=20171211

I also connected to the Steemsql database which is held and managed by @acangre. The query used here was

 SELECT *
 FROM TxTransfers (NOLOCK)
  WHERE [to] in ('blocktrades','teambitwala','bittrex', 'teambitwala','changelly', 'hitbtc-exchange',                
  'roomofsatoshi', 'openledger','poloniex', 'openledger-dex','shapeshiftio')
  AND timestamp >= CONVERT(datetime,'11/11/2017') 
  AND timestamp< CONVERT(datetime,'12/11/2017')

After this I carried out further transformations on the retuned data and loaded it to the model.

The final steps included creating a data table in the dataset so I could setup relationships between Coinmarketcap data and Steemit data. I then use DAX to carry out any calculations needed.

High Level Overview

In total since the 11 Nov 1,707K SBD has been transferred out of Steemit via 23K transactions by 6359 steemains.

On Wed 22 Nov the price of SBD went to $3.02 and this is when we had the biggest transfer of SBD out of Steemit. At the time, who would have thought it would go higher right?

At the start of December the price of SBD began to rise again. We can see on the 2nd Dec the price hits $2.54 and another 94K SBD is transferred out. This is where people began to feel like they don’t want to miss out like they did in Nov.

However the price continues to rise and the number of transactions along with the amount of SBD being transferred out also increases.

We can see a peak on the 8th Dec when the price hit $9.84. At this stage even I thought there was no way it would go higher. From the data it looks like I was not the only one to think this as after this the amount of SBD transferred out of Steemit decreases, although the price continues to rise.
On the 10 Dec the price hit $14.04.

At this stage however large volumes of SBD had already been traded. On the 10th Dec there were 1716 transaction passing 44K SBD out of Steemit.

Although the price and transaction numbers are up on the 9-11th Nov, the overall amount of SBD transferred out is down. The average transfer value is down which would suggest at this stage, all surplus SBD held on Steemit has been sold, and now people are selling their SBD as they claim the rewards.

More Detailed Analysis

The scatter plot below plots the no of transactions on the bottom against the amount of SBD transferred out for each steemain. It is easy to see from this chart the outliers. @paco-steem made 820 transfers totalling 66.7K SBD and @happychau123 made 614 transitions of just under 400K SBD . @smooth-a is also showing as a slight outlier, with 14 transactions and almost 150K SBD

The next two charts revile some interesting findings. The first chart is the daily volume of SBD as per coinmarketcap plotted against the SBD transferred out of Steemit.

Volume peaked on the 22 Nov on Exchanges, along with the amount of SBD transferred out of Steemit and the trend of both go relatively in the same direction. As volume increases in the exchanges so does the SBD transferred out of Steemit.

Looking at the bottom chart, I have calculated the SBD transferred out to Exchange Volume ratio

It is very interesting to see that the SBD transfer to Exchange volume ratio was substantially higher before the price of SBD began its accent. A further analysis would be required to see if this was always the case. But it is clear that while the price of SBD was rising, the amount of SBD transferred out of Steemit did not play a major factor in the trading volume.

Steemit Winners

I have taken the SBD transferred out of Steemit and used the close price for that day to calculate how much was made in us$. Below is a table showing the top winners in terms of financial gain

How I wish I was one of these. Well done to each and every one of you, this is good news.

However
I did mention that some of these have reinvested by purchasing STEEM. To look at this I needed to rework the SQL query.

During the same time period, some people transferred STEEM into Steemit via the exchanges. I have no way to prove what is proceeds from SBD but the table is interesting. The table below shows the people that have transferred into steemit sorted by the amount of STEEM

For all of you powering up – congratulations, especially if you have used profits made from SBD. Seeing such volumes of power ups is awesome. It really shows a level of confidence in Steemit.

I am part of a Steemit Business Intelligence community. We all post under the tag #BIsteemit. If you have an analysis you would like carried out on Steemit data, please do contact me or any of the #bisteemit team and we will do our best to help you...

You can find #bisteemit on discord https://discordapp.com/invite/JN7Yv7j

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Posted on Utopian.io - Rewarding Open Source Contributors

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