What Will Be The Price Of STEEM In One Year From Now – Aug 2019?

Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

Introduction

The current situation in the crypto market is not looking good at all. The 2018 is becoming the year of crypto correction, no doubt about that. It is the longest period with crypto going down and unable to recover to new heights.

Analysis on the steem price is made, taking in to account the historical data of the price. A simple method of linear regression is used. Then a linear trend line made in excel, extract formula, and then calculate the price for the future period.

Outline

• Scope
• Results
• Findings
• Conclusion
• Tools
• Relevant Links and Resources

Scope

The crypto market by its nature is very speculative. Speculation are made, and they are real. Big players can influence this new and unstable market. This is what happened with the introduction of Bitcoin futures in December 2017.

This days we are seeing one more hit on the crypto. The decision of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to disapprove a proposed rule change that would let the Cboe BZX Exchange list a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
This are two major events in the crypto market, driven by institutional players with big influence on the price.

Predicting the price is like predicting the future. And for sure nobody knows the future. But then yet again this is predicting, it means we are trying to guess the price, not accurately to know it.

By doing this we can manage our expectations and have some bigger picture in our head, without letting the everyday price movement to affect us.

For this analysis I’m using the historical data on daily steem price from 18 April 2016 till 13 august 2018. The source data for this is Coinmarketcap.com

This are the steps for the analysis:

• import data in excel,
• add linear trendline,
• extract formula for the trendline,
• calculate future prices.

Importing the data for past steem price is easy just copy paste data from coinmarketcap.

scource

After importing the data, chart is formed from it.

scource

The chart above is a function of the price of steem in time. When showing the relationship between one item in correlation with one other factor, this is called simple linear regression. If more than one factor is included the process is called multiple linear regression.

Is this one factor enough. Well not at all. As we saw big institutional decisions can have huge impact on the price. For now, let’s keep the thing simple and use only one factor – Time.

As mentioned this is a data for something over 2 years. Not bad for a decent analyst, but 5 years or more usually is preferred base. The bigger the base the better the analysis.
Next the linear trendline is added and the formula is extracted.

Here it is:

y = 0,0031x + 0,1019

where:
y – price of steem
x – days starting from 18 April 2016

Results and findings

To answer the question in the title, we need to input the days in the formula above, starting from 18 April 2016 to 13 August 2019. The number of days for this period is 1212.

Now the price:

price = 0,0031*1212 + 0,1019 = 3,8591

The price of steem in august 2019, using this method will be 3,8591.

I hope this goes without saying but just to be clear.
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment adviser.

It is representation of a very simple statistical method to predict the price. This can be totally inaccurate, and the price can be very different from what it’s shows here. Events can occur that can change the price quite a lot. In fact, if you look at the past period, the trend line is very different from the actual price.

Having said this lets now play with the formula and make some wild predictions for the next five years.

Date	Price
01.01.2019	3,16
01.01.2020	4,30
01.01.2021	5,43
01.01.2022	6,56
01.01.2023	7,69

Conclusion

The conclusion from this simple analysis is that the overall trend of the steem price for the past two years is positive. The statistical method used shows that the price of steem is expected to increase.

The past all-time high, of nearly 8, is expected to be reached again in five years from now in 2023.

Tools and Scripts

For the purpose of this analysis I have used Microsoft Excel.

Relevant Links and Resources

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/historical-data/?start=20130428&end=20180814

Proof of Authorship

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16XpAwjWttpwu004xdT0OgMlyclhuyxeexCcem0V9CcM/edit?usp=sharing