The United States threw about half a trillion dollars abroad.

in #usa4 years ago

In fact, the amount, of course, is greater. And this is only accounting for swap lines between the Fed and central banks of a number of “right” countries. Although the current “pipe” was opened only in March, the dollar’s ​​dumping on foreign markets will soon exceed 500 billion. The previous maximum was around 590 billion at the height of the 2008-2009 crisis. Now it seems that the peaks are still far away, and the numbers are already comparable.

Bloomberg Agency serves this with the sauce "US contribution to saving the global economy." In fact, they are desperate to save themselves. Bucks dangerously strengthened. The largest investment funds and ball-skiers-billionaires go to the cache. A sweet fairy tale, long driven into the heads of the inhabitants of the planet about the reliability of the dollar, is now strangling America itself. They would have collapsed a bit in the style of "market solved" and then you can clean up the garbage and recover. But the markets are stifling with increased demand for bucks. For more than a month, the dollar strength index (relation to the currencies of major trading partners) has been hovering around the 100 mark. Even in the conditions of a frozen world trade, this is too much - American goods are too expensive for foreign buyers, and it is not profitable to produce in the USA because imported goods are cheaper.
Goldman Sachs argues that under the current conditions, the dollar strength index of around 80 would be optimal. That is, you need to drop twenty percent. In principle, there is practical evidence for this. Under Obama, there was a short period when the index fluctuated around 80-85 and during this time it was possible to slightly reduce public debt and reduce the budget deficit. This happened against the backdrop of much discussion about the destructiveness of the uncontrolled growth of public debt. They believed the analysts, the rate fell, investors began to withdraw assets from the dollar. But the achieved results just convinced the financiers of the reliability of the bucks and it all started again.

And here is a new round of exacerbation. Countries need to pay debts and buy goods denominated in dollars. And they are sucked out of the system by investors who go to the cache. The rescue respite was achieved due to the “partners” who agreed to participate in the swap lines. On the one hand, freshly printed dollars are not backed up by anything. On the other hand, the EU and Japan and other “trusted” countries now also cut the printing presses. And they all resemble kids enthusiastically playing the "Monopoly". The exchange of painted candy wrappers is exciting. And lasts until mom calls to eat. But here, after all, the games are not children’s and no one promised to feed. And at the end of the swap line sucked from the finger, there are always simple Johan, Akhura with Frantisek - and they need to work honestly for these candy wrappers.

In general, the United States is trying again to crank out the old trick, pushing its problems beyond the borders of the country. And there, let the indignant sort out their governments, who agreed to participate in the new scam. But people are discussing coovidla, aliens and conspiracy theories. And they quietly pull out their labor and pensions. However, this is a personal matter. Russia and China, for example, do not participate in this. Even Ukraine is in a better position than Germany. Kiev, maybe the swap line would not hurt - ten billion more debt, ten less - they don’t do the weather. But part of the problems, albeit temporarily, could be closed. But this is not their size. But there will be no such global consequences for their economy.

Apparently, the dollar will go down soon. To keep falling within the framework is a difficult task. Many people think that it will come to negative rates. It is a possible option. Although it would be interesting to see if the Fed went against the market and raised the discount rate. Let's say up to 1 percent from the current 0.25%. By the way, this could really help them out.

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