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RE: Which of these unusual events was the most improbable?
I think both the Lauras meeting is the most improbable because while the other events are also improbable, the things that happen in them are the same mostly, like winning the lottery twice on the same day, winning ten races in a row and even the 2 guys publishing a comic with the same name...
But for this two girls to not only have the same name but also the same last name, hair colors, school grade, pets, etc... it's way more stuff that had to happen so their meeting is like 10 improbable events on 1.
Exactly! For most of these, you can conduct similar statistical analyses that will lead you to have a confirmation bias or survivorship bias. Many events happen over and over again, and when they happen in just that way that seems too lucky, they are written down and judged forever in isolation.
But for the Laura Buxton x2 case, each coincidence would add a whole new exponential statistical difficulty. Survivorship bias suffers tremendously under the load of this coincidence. People who share the same name, general location, age, etc., plus localised events such as the pets and personality choices, would make it so that this is an almost super-natural case of coincidence.
Good point re: the survivorship bias. That particular story is so unusual and unlikely to occur, any way you analyze it.
The Lauras story is amazing, I agree. So many variables there that came together in alignment.
I agree with this. but the father finding his daughter because she was in a pic he took and the church thing are both amazing to
15 people late on the same day for a variety of reasons and on THAT day the church blows up?