AMERICA’s ANTI CHINA ALLIANCES ARE GOOD FOR NOTHING

ANOTHER INDIA CHINA WAR IS AROUND THE CORNER BUT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS MISREADING EVERYTHING

Note: This content is part of my book called MODI’s INDIA – THE WEAKEST LINK IN AMERICA’S ANTI CHINA ALLIANCE. This book covers wide range of subjects related to the US India alliance to contain China and why that alliance might not achieve its objectives. It is exclusively available on Amazon in almost every country.

American policy makers believed that India could be an ideal choice in their Indo Pacific strategy which was specially designed to counter China but there is a question which needs attention, does Modi’s India has this capability to resist China militarily? Soldiers of India and China are deployed on many places of the line of actual control at the moment. It has been 3 Years now since the tensions between these two countries started after the Galwan clash in Ladakh and there seems to be no end of these crises in near future in fact there is a high possibility that the situation might become worse in coming days.

Till September 2021, china had doubled the number of its air bases at the line of actual control by constructing 10 new air bases. Looking at the speed of the construction of new Chinese air bases, roads and other military facilities all along the line of actual control, It appears that India-China war is just a few years away only and preparations are being made already. It will not be a traditional war though; China has initiated the process of reducing India’s diplomatic, military and economic strength or effectiveness already. They are doing so with sustained attacks, many of them are going unnoticed in India, as Indian military leaders are still unable to understand the pattern of modern Chinese warfare. Moreover, due to the Anti Muslim, Anti Pakistan political ideology, India’s Hindutva based political regime BJP thinks that Pakistan is their threat number one, which is not true. China has already created a string of pearls around India and they did so at a time when India was entirely focused on Pakistan only.

China’s upcoming war with India will be the war of speed, it will be the war of occupation, China has territorial claims on three states of India that are Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh whom Chinese used to call as South Tibet. This India China war will affect entire India of course but it is highly unlikely that the Chinese will move beyond these three states as their claim is only up to here. Founding father of China Mao Zedong used to say that the Tibet is a palm and Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pardesh , Bhutan and Nepal are its 5 fingers, (3 of these 5 fingers are in India). So it’s an ideological issue for the Chinese rather than just a land dispute, its bit like Pakistan where Indian occupied Kashmir is considered as the unfinished agenda of history and Pakistan’s founding father Muhammad Ali Jinnah called it as Pakistan’s Jugular Vein which makes it ideological issue for Pakistan.

So during the China’s modern war to reclaim its disputed territories from India, whenever Chinese decided to enter in these three out of five fingers of Tibet, that are Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pardesh, India will not have any resistance capability left. China would start a sudden occupational war, which will be multi dimensional, multi domain war, something which world would have never seen before. You can resemble the outcome of this war with the Afghanistan’s end game where after the U.S. withdrawal whole world including Americans were thinking that there would be a huge fight between U.S. backed Afghan national army and Afghan Taliban but Afghan national army easily surrendered without fight since they had no resistance capabilities left. So since there is unbridgeable military gap between the China and India, China will ensure to crush all the resistance capabilities of India by unleashing all domains of war against them; it would be China’s war of speed. There will be China’s robots, machines swarm drones, software all driven by artificial intelligence without any or minimum human involvement versus Indian human soldiers as a result there will be minimum casualties for the Chinese in this war whereas India will suffer a huge number of causalities. China’s military budget is over $225 Billion dollars as compared to India’s annual military budget of around $72 billion dollars. Out of these $225 billion dollars, Chinese are investing nearly $100 billion dollars on AI (According to some estimates) so China is spending huge amount of money on these new domains of war and India is not that much familiar with these domains.

When I talk about the modern warfare and the multi dimensional multi domain wars, I mean that it will not be limited to fighting on the borders only which old school Indian generals are assuming, they are thinking that China will bring few thousand human soldiers on the borders along with some tanks and we will handle them somehow. By unleashing all domain war, China will paralyze Indian energy sector which would than paralyze many systems that are connected to this main sector, for example communication systems, Banking system, Health system etc, all of them will collapse at the start of the conflict. Few Years back, there was unusual power breakdown in India’s financial capital Mumbai, there was no electricity in that region for hours as a result everything was shutdown from stock exchange and railway lines to hospitals, factories and banks which resulted the loss of billions of rupees for India within few hours. Later on, it was claimed that this breakdown was probably due to the Chinese cyber attack on power generation system. During multi dimensional, multi domain wars something similar could happen in entire country.

Now, this upcoming war (which is not too far away looking at the current tensions between the two countries), could have been avoided if Indian PM Modi would not have taken illogical and politically driven decision of 5th August 2019 where he removed the article 370 from the Indian constitution which gave china claimed Ladakh and Pakistan claimed Kashmir (both the regions are connected geographically) a wider autonomy. China considered it as an attack on its sovereignty so this move brought India China further closer to war and as a result of this senseless move, Galwan clash took place just few months later. This step was not taken to serve American interests but just to get electoral benefits as it was the demand of Modi’s Hindutva fan base to do so. Thus, he provided an excellent opportunity for Pakistan and Chinese militaries to further strengthen their military interoperability, which they did. Americans wanted to break China Pakistan nexus but by declaring disputed areas like Ladakh and Kashmir as Indian states, PM Modi strengthen China Pakistan military ties and of course by doing this he has created new threats for India’s territorial integrity as well.

AUKUS : AMERICA's WHITE MEN ALLIANCE TO COUNTER CHINA AND INDIA AS AN UNFIT PART OF QUAD GROUP

There was a time when white men of western world used to refer East Asian nations as “WHITE NATIONS” , this practice continued until 18th century. Later on, they saw a huge resistance from these East Asian nations against WEST’s cultural imperialism especially in China and Japan, only at this point Western world changed its perception about East Asian nations and they started to call them as yellow races. This rivalry between the Westerners and East Asians is very old and it is full of wars and conflicts.

Renowned western scholar Samuel P Huntington wrote in his famous book “The clash of the civilizations and the remaking of world order” that Chinese (A yellow race, according to WEST) and Islamic civilization are the potential threat for the western dominated world order. And he showed a possibility that both these civilizations (Islamic and Chinese) might even form some sort of an alliance against the WEST. It is facts that there is no such individual Muslim country in world at the moment that can single handedly challenge the western dominated world order but there is collectiveness in the Islamic civilization. The concept of Ummah is what makes it a great force and we have seen it during the soviet war in Afghanistan when apparently it was Afghans vs Soviets yet Muslim mujahedeen from many parts of the world came to Afghanistan to fight against the soviets. Only few Muslim countries worked together towards a common goal and they defeated the super power like Soviet Union.

Therefore, it is not hard to understand why Huntington thought that Islamic civilization could be a threat for the Western powers as well. So probably, it was the fear of “Ummah”, which forced USA led western bloc to invade and engage Islamic world inside their own camps rather than allowing them to look towards the WEST. So the western invasions started from Afghanistan in the name of war against terror and spread until the Middle East and Africa during last 20 years. However, while US led western bloc was busy in countering this self-created Islamic extremism threat; China emerged as a new challenger for the west’s global dominance. And it all happened much before West had actually anticipated, as a result what we have seen recently is that US is wrapping up its unnecessary military engagements in the Islamic world and it has decided to focus on China. As Chinese are all set to take over US as a new super power in near future looking at the speed of China’s military, diplomatic and economic growth.

So considering all these developments one thing is clear, WEST’s threat perception was wrong in all these 20 years. Their threat assessment that Islamic world is a immediate threat for their global order, was wrong and while they were engaged in these useless wars against Islamic civilization, China got open ground to play and they took full advantage of this situation and emerged as the new Super power. As a result, US moved its forces away from Afghanistan and the Middle East just to focus on China because after all, Afghanistan or Iraq or Syria are not the threats for the America’s global dominance, china is.

In order to compete with China, US first relied on QUAD alliance, a four country alliance that include India, Japan, Australia and USA, they even renamed their U.S pacific command as U.S Indo pacific command which was a symbolic nod to India. India was main player in this QUAD alliance after US, simply because they had direct land border with China unlike other 3 countries of the group plus India thought that they have the strategic card, they can choke Strait of Malacca which is the main trade and energy route for the China.

For years, Ex American president Trump and then his successor Joe Biden kept trying to create some troubles for China using this QUAD alliance, US had high hopes in India as it was supposed to be the main player in QUAD after the USA after all it’s a country with 1.4 billion people having one of the largest armies in world. However, soon USA realized that their assessment regarding India was wrong. The reason was simple; Americans were noticing that while china entered inside the Indian controlled territory of Ladakh in 2020 and captured over 2000 sq KM of land, India could not do anything in fact India is still unable to take back even a single KM of their land from the Chinese. That shows, neither India has any military or technological superiority over china nor India’s economy allows it to engage in any conflict with china.

Moreover, India is heavily dependent on china in terms of its supply chain. Apart from that, in order to fight with china, India’s top weapon supplier Russia won’t provide any weapons since they are the top global partners of China so India would require lot of money to buy American weapons whereas India does not have that many resources. So perhaps Americans have realized that if India is unable to protect its own interests in this region against China, how in world US can rely on them for its own grand objectives in the Indo pacific region. So now a new bigger and better alliance has been formed by the US and unlike QUAD this one is a naval alliance mainly, it’s called as the AUKUS and it consists of three countries Australia UK and USA. Since all three countries are white English speaking nations, hence many people are calling AUKUS as white Anglo-Saxon alliance or white English speaking alliance. AUKUS is mainly focused on maritime security because none of these AUKUS countries have any physical border with china, however they think that they can put pressure on china in South China Sea and in U.S Pacific command area but can this new military alliance really create any visible impact?

Many experts believe that this new anti China alliance can pose great challenges for China in South China Sea and indo-pacific region but I do not think so, AUKUS alone will not be enough to counter China. And the reason is that China is a great naval power and unlike USA, China’s military strength lies inside its mainland and in South China Sea. China’s military power is not scattered all over the world on Military bases like America. So AUKUS’s military capabilities are not equal to China in Indo Pacific region. But one thing is sure, amid its Sinophobia drive, US is leading this region towards never ending Arms race and uncertain future, ASEAN countries have already shown their concerns against this new military alliance which is basically created to re balance the power shift in Asia which is heavily in China’s favor at the moment.

Note: This content is part of my book called MODI’s INDIA – THE WEAKEST LINK IN AMERICA’S ANTI CHINA ALLIANCE. This book covers wide range of subjects related to the US India alliance to contain China and why that alliance might not achieve its objectives. It is exclusively available on Amazon in almost every country.