Trump's Trade War: What Impacts on Geopolitics and World Trade?
Donald Trump has finally delivered on his long-delayed promise of trade protectionism, and in the worst possible way
By promising to impose tariffs on metals imports (25% on steel, 10% on aluminum) on “national security” grounds, he addresses a problem that doesn’t exist, and creates a host of new ones.
As everyone except the president seems to know, the US is predominantly a services and high-tech economy
The best-case scenario is that it is, and having satisfied his urge Trump will move on to other matters
The most likely case, however is that subsequent trade actions will more tightly target China, which accounts for half of the US non-oil trade deficit
Now countries will be inclined to wonder whether it is really China or the US that poses the greater threat to the world trading system...
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Without globalization, i don't think it's good for the US, because there's a lot of international businesses the US had like: dollar as medium of exchange, facebook, google, air bnb, etc.
Excellent commentary. I now follow you.
I am certain there are underlying reasons for President Trump's decision in this matter, that he doesn't want to disclose. However, I agree that he probably did not discuss it with leaders of any other country prior to his announcement. It is not a good sign for the future of international trade between America and other countries, as ALL leaders may see him as too unpredictable and impulsive.
Thank you for this good comment. It seems it is escalating quickly with EU responding...
Yeah...yeah...yeah. But the MAIN problem is that noone is the what most of us are not seeing is the MAJOR problems being created behind-the-scenes by China. Just look at what's happening in Cambodia right now. The US administration has FINALLY made the right decision is MAJORLY cutting aid to that country, seeing as the Chinese are running over democracy like the proverbial "bull in a China shop" (pun intended). Peter Navarro is WELL-INFORMED about China and their notorious "tactics", and so I am assuming that these guys know more than we do about the overall situation. I do INDEED enjoy your analysis in this post, but having lived in Asia for over a decade, and knowing what I do about China, I have to remain skeptical and assume that the Trump admin has information that we simply don't/can't. But I AM listening to your thoughts on the matter. Thanks.
I would agree but these tariffs will hit mostly Canada ! Is canada so unfair to the US?
Steel is nota matter of national security in my opinion. Whenother countries will close their trading markets to the us, dont be surprosed... because you **** us in Europe with your GAFAS. Hopefullyit will get better.
Yes. Another thing to consider, however, if that this may be an indirect military maneuver as well. As is the case I mentioned in the last comment (Cambodia) we have seen the dictator there turn his back on the international community which has been providing SERIOUS monetary and humanitarian assistance to that country since the UN got involved to establish peace in the 90s. Now this bafoon is UNABASHEDLY thumbing his nose at the US and others, claiming that China is going to be taking the place of all of that western aid into the future. So what have we seen in the year since this process began : 1. the complete abolition of the opposition party in Cambodia (equivalent to the Republicans abolishing the Democratic party and literally IMPRISONING THE head of the Dan Cong 2. Instatement of a Les Magistre legislation (similar to Thailand) which makes it an imprisonable crime to insult the royalty. I can give more examples, but these ALL conincide with the increased leveraging of Chinese power in Southeast Asia, and they are all TYPICAL "Chinese" legislative overhauls. My ultimate point is simply that the economic losses you are claiming in your argument do NOT take into account the negative impacts of these politica maneuvers by China, which will - IN THEMSELVES - have negative "anti free market" effects which were reverberate through the global economy. I am just thinking our loud here, and trying to add some DIMENSION to the debate - AS WELL as some healthy "realpolitik"... Keep up the good analysis....
Agreed, I have to admit I do not know enough about the Cambodian situation. Thanks to you I will look more into the matter as it seems to be forgotten by Western Press...
Take care.
Nice to see that you are open to consider new information. Here is a good article to start with which addresses the core of the issue. I simple Google search will turn up additional resources if you are interesting in pursuing the topic. You can also ask me for more. I have a few good ones in my archive. Cambodia is a good case study due to the fact that the UN had to essentially go in there an (attempt) to rebuild the whole country out from a warzone. So with the government there "backstabbing" the west this provides an excellent demonstration of the "new cold war" in action. Again, I will stick with my stance that this new "trade war" by the US administration is more of a clandestine geopolitical maneuver addressing the MULTITUDE of problems in the Asia region (ex. N. Korea, Cambodia, etc.). Hope this is helpful info. As always, I upvote your posts every day... Keep it up...
Hun Sen Counts On China As He Cracks Down On Cambodia - Has He Miscalculated?
http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2111437/hun-sen-counts-china-he-cracks-down-cambodia-has-he-miscalculated
VERY interesting article. I really have to dig deeper into it. I will ask my Cambodian-descent friend what he thinks about the situation.
If your Cambodian contact is living in the US (or anywhere outside of Cambodia) I think it is likely that they will say something similar to what I'm saying. Also, here another interesting article (hot off the press) related to the Cambodia situation and cryptocurrency. As expected, the writer is claiming that adopting a national cryptocurrency is intended to ENHANCE rebellion against the western donors (which have significantly helped keep the country primarily out of the state of active war until the country became strong enough to backstab the west and not side with China). But us smart people knew this was the situation all along. My personal opinion is that it has simply been LESS COSTLY to allow Cambodia to remain in a "hot civil war" state than it has been to PLACATE them and maintain stability in the larger region. Obviously we can now see the COST of that - that is, BILLIONS of dollars of Western taxpayer money down the drain. This is why I am siding with the Trump administration on this for now. They are making the kinds of policy decisions that SHOULD have been made in past decades, but were not - and we can now see the end result. Totally messed up...
americans must be so tired from all this winnings...
it is clear that the low level of understanding in world trade by trump, if the goal is only china then it would be funny if allied countries also become victims, if the reason for the sake of maintaining the stability of domestic trade and take policy as it is today, whether trump not think that other countries will also do the same, they are also obliged to protect their country from trade that does not benefit their own country. if I may say trump is like a frog in a shell, seeing the world as big as a coconut shell
Such a shortsighted move by Trump. And I agree - while the direct consequences are negligible, it's the increased risk of a trade war that becomes the real concern. Last time we engaged in a full trade war was in
the run-up to the Great Depression.
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You make a lot of assumptions as facts when instead they are your opinions. This article has an extremely globalist viewpoint
Interesting
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