Why Trump is going to win, and why you need to be ready for what happens after...

I was bullish on Trump winning the election even before Project Veritas, Fraction Magic vote rigging, and Comey publicly reopening the FBI's investigation into Hilary.

There are several theories why the FBI reopened the investigation so close to the election, and why do it publicly after they already cleared her in July - remember Comey didn't want to prosecute then because he said he couldn't prove intent, even though she was negligent and therefore broke the law.

So now to reverse that decision they must have found intent (see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/podesta-mills-we-are-going-have-dump-all-those-emails ), and they must be pretty confident to go public and risk the heat from Obama and the establishment - the media was very quick to spin it as Comey breaking the law for interfering with the elections.

God knows what else they found on Weiner's laptop, it's ironic that Hilary gets taken down by a pervert, after covering up for one for years (her husband) - that's karma!

There's a good chance Comey is trying to cover his ass and get out ahead of a Wikileaks style dump from mutinous FBI and NSA agents, that would expose his original efforts to silence the truth and prevent justice.

The other possibility is that this event gives Clinton and the media a convenient out to explain her loss - even the rigged polls have started narrowing since the news, and after Fraction Magic it's going to be very hard for them to rig the votes for Hilary and get away with it.

Either way, there's no way the FBI investigation can be finished before the election on November 8, so this is going to lead to huge voter suppression for Clinton's base - how can you elect someone for President when they are under active investigation, it creates too much doubt.

With a Trump presidency basically in the bag (barring a huge black swan to delay elections), it's amazing that the markets haven't priced this in at all, apart from small moves in gold and the Mexican peso.

Probably because all the trading algorithms trade off MSM headlines and polls which are still pro-Hilary, and the FED is still propping things until the election to support the recovery narrative.

When Trump's win is announced, there is a very real risk of a 10-20% dollar and equity sell off like we saw with Brexit, catching everyone offside. With Trump there is huge political uncertainty for offshore dollar and foreign Treasury holders, especially the Saudis who are screwed without Hilary after JASTA.

Any serious volatility in bonds and their interest rate derivatives would sink a lot of the undercapitalised banks, and the increased money velocity from offshore dollar repatriation (and subsequent QE) would be hugely inflationary in the medium term i.e. bullish for gold and commodities, and even oil if the petrodollar alliance is ending.

There is the possibility that this process gets dragged out a little further if Hilary contests the election, which she is likely to do in her desperation and blame the Russians. War is the ultimate distraction of course, depending on how damning the email evidence is against Obama and the rest of the administration.

P.S. This risk is pretty asymmetric and therefore easy to hedge against, as if Clinton does win somehow it's already priced in, so there wouldn't be much volatility in the other direction.