Great News: Donald Trump was the big loser in Virginia

CNN)The race for Virginia governor on Tuesday night wasn't very close. And Republicans have Donald Trump to blame for it.

In  key areas of Virginia Republicanism -- the suburbs of Richmond and the  exurbs of Washington, DC -- Republican Ed Gillespie ran far behind  recent past GOP gubernatorial nominees and even behind Trump himself.  

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That  poor performance seemed to come in spite of the fact that Gillespie's  profile -- a former Republican National Committee Chairman and  card-carrying member of the Republican establishment -- seemed to be  more ready-made for voters in those critical regions of the commonwealth  than past Republican nominees. And in spite of the fact that Ralph  Northam, the Democratic nominee, hailed from the sparsely populated  eastern shore of Virginia and had a southern accent that some Democrats  worried wouldn't play well in northern Virginia.

So,  why? Why did a race that most polling suggested was tightening -- in  Gillespie's favor -- wind up not being all that close? The obvious --  and right -- answer is Trump.  

The  exit polls bear that out. Trump's approval rating among Virginia voters  was just 42% as compared to a dispproval rating of 58%. Even more  importantly, of the 50% of Virginians who said that Trump was a major  factor in their vote in the 2017, twice as many said they wanted to send  a signal of opposition to the President as said they wanted to send a  signal of support.

The  story of the race -- and Trump's drag on Gillespie -- can be told in  the vote count in two counties: Loudoun and Chesterfield.
Loudoun,  an exurban county west of Washington, has grown rapidly over the past  decade -- and as it has, it's moved away from its strong conservative  roots. Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe won Loudoun county by 5 points in  his 2013 victory -- about 4,000 votes.  In 2009, Republican Bob  McDonnell carried Loudoun by 15,000 votes.   '

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Democrats  were hoping Northam might be able to match -- or slightly improve on  McAuliffe's showing from four years ago. With almost every precinct  reporting, Northam had a massive 20 point margin (more than 17,000  votes). That's absolutely stunning.
Chesterfield,  which includes the city of Richmond, is the ancestral home of country  club Republicanism in the Old Dominion. Business conservatives dominate.  Gentility reigns. It is not then Trump territory.
Hillary  Clinton lost Chesterfield by only 4,000 votes in 2016, a massive  improvement over Barack Obama, who lost the county by almost four times  that amount in 2012. With nearly all votes counted in Chesterfield,  Northam was running less than 1,000 votes behind Gillespie.
"This  is where we will see if Trump is dragging Gillespie down," a Democratic  consultant told me earlier Tuesday. "Are Never-Trumpers now  Never-GOPers?
The answer -- at least in Chesterfield on Tuesday night -- was a resounding "yes."
Trump, of course, distanced himself from the loss almost immediately. He tweeted just after 8:40 p.m. ET:
"Ed  Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don't  forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy  doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!"  
And, there will be a segment  of Republicans who believe it because, well, they believe anything and  everything Trump says. But that won't make it true.
But,  the simple fact when you look at turnout patterns in places like  Chesterfield and Loudoun, is that the lots of Virginia voters --  including some decent chunk of establishment GOPers -- jumped at the  chance to send Trump a very clear message that they didn't like what he  was selling. They didn't like it at all.
That  is a message that Republicans in targeted districts and states will get  loud and clear from Tuesday's vote in Virginia. The problem they will  face is this: Trump and Trumpism is clearly a problem with general  electorates but the President remains an extremely popular figure within  the most conservative elements of the GOP, who tend to decide primary  nominations. (Remember that Gillespie almost loss his primary against a  little regarded GOP opponent who ran as a Trump clone.)
That  conundrum is going to be hugely problematic for Republicans as they try  to navigate between primaries over the next 10 months and the 2018  general election. To win the GOP nomination, you have to hew as closely  to Trump as possible. But, once you win, that close connection -- or  even a not-so-close connection -- can doom you among swing voters.