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RE: STEEM is still not Steemit, even if Tron buys Steemit.
While you're clearly right about all else herein, it's just unreasonable to fail to anticipate a price decrease with a fork under such conditions IMHO. It's not like history hasn't provided examples.
If 'Steem Classic', or Gold, or Cash, or whatever name the new chain settles on, rises in price rather than declines, it would be the first fork to do so.
None of the other blockchain 'fork' examples you allude to are really analogous. Most of them (e.g. Bitcoin gold) are third party forks created by opportunists. Ethereum Classic is very much a special case and also very different as it didn't involve the founder selling out to a competing chain/foundation, but instead actively supporting the non-Classic chain.
Anyway, after the live streem, the lastest is that the token swap is off for now and the existing Steem blockchain will continue as before. I would imagine most fork proposals will accordingly off the table, but who can say going forward. I expect many in the Steem community to remain skeptical of the new corporate overlords (which a blockchain doesn't really have), as well they should.