My first Ethereum price predicition

So, this will be my first ever post on steemit or anywhere else for that matter. Be easy on me with the comments as I am a new trader, new to steemit and new to blogging in general. Now, to the subject at hand...

Ethereum:
Looking at the hourly chart on Coinigy it shows a spike on 7/16 to around $270 (I use Kraken) with a correction to 188 and a few more smaller upward corrections that never brought it close to the $270 range again. Based on the fact that it has fallen back down to the $200 range and is still on an overall downward trend, I believe it will be going back down to the 180 area again, which is where I plan to close my short. I have a short in at around $206 in anticipation, with cover shorts in the $230 range and $270 range to catch any big spikes that may occur. Should it continue down past $180 range then I will shorting on the way down.

Any Input on any of this would be greatly appreciated, just try to minimize the harshness

Grub