[BITCOIN DAILY ANALYTICS] 10 JUN — Bitcoin is waiting for a breakout.

Bitcoin is traded on very small volumes, waiting for a breakout up or down, and traders are hanging over the buy/sell button to open their positions in time, depending on the trend.

In the last analysis, I pointed out: if bitcoin would fix above 4H EMA100, only then we would expect growth to 5H EMA100 — but during the last few hours bitcoin was traded only above 4H/5H SMA50 and below M/BB, while BB “tightens”; and on the daily TF, bitcoin was traded near daily SMA20 (M/BB), which puts downtrend.

Let us analyze further possible movements, although the changes from the past analysis are minimal:

1. On the basis of TI, we can check the following:

At the 4H TF we have a number of potential downward projections: CCI=-44 (positive trend), ROC=0 (negative trend), MACD=6 (MACD < signal line, DMI=13 (+DI < -DI), %R=-59. At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.

On the daily TF, TIs are giving mixed signals: CCI=14 (positive trend), ROC=-10 (negative trend), MACD=-190 (MACD > signal line), DMI=30 (+DI < -DI), %R=-21.

In general, TIs points to a slight drop to 4H/5H L/BB ~ 7550.

1. Based on SMA/EMA, we can check the following:

At the 4H/5H: SMA10 < SMA 20; SMA10 seeks down to SMA50; EMA6, 9, 12, 26, 50 are concentrated around 7600–7650, with small positive projections.

Overall, MAs indicates a possible increase to 5H U/BB and 5H EMA100 ~ 7750.

Finally, if bitcoin would jump to 4H EMA100, then we might expect an increase to 5H EMA100. Nevertheless, with such growth, I would recommend further increasing of shorts, while increasing SL (including for the first shorts) to the level of “entry + daily ATR” ~ 8100.

The targets for the potential downward swing trade are about daily L/BB ~ 7000–7100.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Head Analyst,
David Goldberg

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MATADOR FUND Team

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