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RE: The Tesla Killer? Why Fisker Zombie-Motive Is Vaporware (AGAIN!!!)

in #tesla7 years ago (edited)

I didn't say the rate of technological advancement was linear. The rate of technological advancement is not the same as the rate at which the amount of energy that can be stored in a battery increases over time. The chart I included used the readily available information about how much energy was stored in batteries over time. It's fact. You don't understand what Kurzweil means when he says that technology advances at an exponential rate. It doesn't mean that everything increases at an exponential rate. That's frankly ridiculous. The way you prove me wrong is by showing a chart that demonstrates that the amount of energy stored in batteries is increasing exponentially. Not by showing a chart of a different phenomenon.

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like this?

or this?

carbon (and by that I mean graphene) is showing GREAT promise in the labs.
I expect great things to happen any day now (if it hasn't already)

Fair enough. There is some merit to the claim, though the subject isn't quite cut and dry. That being said, if there is an exponential growth rate (which isn't super clear) it's a small one which, in the short term acts in nearly the same way as a linear growth rate. This information does not change the fact that massive leaps in battery energy storage do not happen. But thanks for the information, I've definitely adjusted my view.

Massive leaps in battery tech hasn't YET...oh wait...what was Lithium Ion compared to Lead Acid? Was that a leap or a hop?

Wasn't seeing your chart before, so I'll look into that. I'm still quite confident that there is scientific consensus around the rate at which energy density is increasing, but am certainly open to being wrong.

if it's consensus it's not science.
in other news...we're discussing technology..not science.

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