RE: The Tesla Killer? Why Fisker Zombie-Motive Is Vaporware (AGAIN!!!)
Great question! At this point I am no where near as educated on the electric vehicle economy as I used to be. From a physics standpoint in-wheel motors are more efficient because energy dissipates when you have to send it from a motor through some mechanical linkage to the wheel. But that doesn't mean it's the ideal solution for every electric vehicle. At the end of the day I look for companies that are going to evaluate the current state of the art and make the right calls with respect to where they allocate resources so that they can execute a product that delights their users and can scale. When I see companies saying stuff like, "Oh we're going to make an awesome car because we have in-wheel motors (or solid state batteries for that matter)," it always sends up a red flag because making an amazing product, but more importantly making an amazing COMPANY, is a lot more than one single component and there is never one single "right" answer. The fact that Tesla is integrating in-wheel motors in specific use cases shows that they probably have a lot of utility, but they're probably still just too expensive for a low-priced mass-market offering like the Model 3 where using components that are already being produced at scale are important. Semis are expensive, so it makes sense that they can experiment with new tech in them, in fact, this might be one of the reasons (just one of many I'm sure) that they were interested in expanding out into that market. At the same time semis are a huge market and after their presentation I have little doubt that it's only a matter of time before Tesla dominates that market. I think that will probably happen even before they dominate the regular car market (mainly because it's so much bigger).
Thanks a lot for your thorough answer, I appreciate it.
Yes, to scale is the keyword.
I know that from my friends at Elaphe. They are in the middle of satisfying all the safety standards now. They are also putting up the manufacturing plant with their Chinese partner. They are aiming to produce 10,000 units of in-wheel motors in the first year. And then scale up :)
Semis are huge market indeed. Railway transport should be bigger but it isn't, unfortunately. That speaking from the environmental point of view. We missed the train of putting the majority of the cargo on the trains long ago.
Thanks again. It is interesting to see your expertise in other fields apart from the Steem / Steemit related areas :)
My pleasure. One interesting segment of their announcement that I haven't seen highlighted is that Tesla semis traveling in sequence are actually more efficient than rail. That could be really disruptive. Over 10 years ago I wrote a blog about the potential impact of enabling autonomous cars to draft one another on highways, and it seems tesla is moving toward that. Eventually one can imagine miles long "trains" of Tesla cars and semis intelligently "linked" to maximize efficiency and speed that new cars can dynamically enter and exit, unlike with rail. Rail may very well be on the way out.
Rail on wheels is the future then? It is a bit scary image :) How do you overtake a mile long parade of semi trucks? :)))
OK, we'll live and see, hopefully.