We Are Right On Track With The Hype Cycle

Many people are familiar with the technological hype cycle. This is a graphical representation of the different phases successful technologies go through.

This is one of the major keys that people need to remember about the world of cryptocurrency. Even though we focus a lot on the financial component, this is still a technology. We are at the mercy of the technological developments and breakthroughs. Thus, the process cannot be short-changed.

The hype cycle really summarizes the different phases. We can see the first few couple completed with cryptocurrency.

It all starts with the introduction of a technology. This was obviously done with the White Paper that exposed the world to Bitcoin. In those early days, few were aware of it. However, over the next 7-8 years, a lot of attention was paid to it. Also during that time, a number of other cyrptocurrencies came out offering great promise in most areas of life. This culminated with the ICO boom of a couple years ago.

Then we saw the peak.

In late 2017, the frenzy was about. Bitcoin closed in on $20,000 and almost all alt-coins went for an enormous ride. When it comes to this industry, it was the "Golden Age". Fortunes were being made by average, everyday people who were fortunate enough to get involved.

And then it stopped.

This is what it looked like.

Notice the nice run up and then topping pattern. This arises because the expectations far exceed the technological capabilities. People believe the hype about disruption and completely changing society. The only problem is the technology is nowhere close to achieving this.

The media obviously plays an enormous role in this. It promotes a lot of the benefits of the new technology not really delving into how long it will take to become a reality.

Of course, after the frenzy of excitement, the inevitable pop takes place. With cryptocurrency, since there is the financial component, we can quantify the fall. Bitcoin lost roughly $17,000 in market cap while many alt-coins lost more than 90%.

That said, we must keep in mind that this chart is not measuring the financial moves. It deals with the different phases of hype.

Fortunately, I feel we are passed the third stage. When the hype starts to die down, the fall from grace is long and hard. In this instance, the drop was aided by a great deal of FUD espoused by those organizations that are most threatened by this technology.

We heard dopey sayings like "Blockchain, not Bitcoin" which helped to scare people away from the technology. This, of course, was taking place at the general investor level. The developers never stopped working. Here we see one of the keys.

After the fall from such esteemed heights, people have a sour taste in their mouths. At this point, we hear a lot of things such as "it is all going to zero". Sound familiar? The negativity is at its peak especially among those who were involved during the frenzy.

It is at this time, that things start to turn.

Here is the point I believe we are at now.

Once again, I must say this is from a technological perspective and not the financial markets. I am not making any reference to whether or not the bottom is in for the markets.

As mentioned, the developers keep plugging away during this entire process. With all that took place over the past couple years, we passed the nadir in my opinion. We are on the path upward where we will see the promises made by this technology take hold.

Please keep in mind, this process can take years, even decades in some instances. Thus, do not expect an overnight explosion.

That does not mean, however, that a fast ascension in development is impossible. Throughout the entire process going forward, we will see times when this comes into being at a rapid pace.

Just look at a few things discussed that we will see in the next year or two:

• Smart Media Tokens
• Libra
• Development of Enterprise Blockchains
• Decentralized Exchanges
• Security Tokens
• Voice on EOS
• Ethereum going to DPOS

The impact or long-term viability of all this remains in question. We will see what ends up succeeding. Some of these might be just phases that transition from what we have today into what is ultimately used.

Nevertheless, we can see where the development over the past couple years will have an impact on the next few.

As we close out the third quarter of 2019, just looking at Steem shows great progress. Think back to the beginning of the year and recall how things were. There was no Steem-Engine per se. @harpagon's smart contracts were only a couple months old. Without that, we did not have the ability to create tokens nor were there any tribes.

Steemit Inc just started their process of becoming more "community friendly" while engaging in their Survive Mode. Since that time, we saw the coding for Mira, Hard Fork 21, and SMT (almost) completed.

In the 4th quarter, just based upon what I know about, we should see a testnet for Hard Fork 23, live feeds onto some of the tribes, fiat conversion on Steem-Engine, and NFTs.

At the same time, like the rest of the year, we will continue to see updates to the applications already present in the ecosystem.

In other words, we are beginning the journey up what Gartner calls the "Slope of Enlightenment". The next couple years will dwarf the last two. If one looks closely, we are already seeing exponential changes taking place. This is something that is hard to quantify yet is happening across the board. Because of the interconnectivity of it all, advancement in one area tends to impact the whole. With tens of thousands of different projects being worked on, the net effect keeps growing.

Understanding this process can help one to navigate a lot of the noise that is out there. There will still be FUD and naysayers. Over the next year, that will diminish as we ascend the slope. Those who keep coming from that viewpoint, unless they have an agenda, are missing the fact that the development moved us past the nadir.

If you find this hard to believe, just search around focusing upon the development tied to cryptocurrency and blockchain. Count up the number of projects that are out there and what entities are involved in them.

An hour spent doing this will quickly provide a different outlook as to what is really taking place. This is not mentioned on CNBC or Bloomberg.

Strap yourselves in, we are about to see some very interesting stuff.

Chart and description of Gartner Hype Cycle:

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/5-stages-of-the-hype-cycle

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