RE: Guess I Was Right About Tesla
To start, SpaceX isnt part of Tesla...that is a totally separate company so your analysis is off base right there.
Secondly, while you can claim there is nothing novel about electric cars, what is novel is someone selling over 100K of them in a year.
Thirdly, production problems and delays in deliveries are nothing new in the car industry. This happens to all manufacturers. That said, Muck is producing more electric cars than anyone else in the world right now. Is it a gimmick? Perhaps. Even at $35K, that isnt a car most people can afford. However, all other traditional manufacturers are facing a bigger uphill climb than Musk right now.
Finally, you mention the subsidies. You act like Tesla got something special. The rebates from the Feds (and some states) are available on all electric vehicles.
As for your conclusion that you were right all along, I am not sure how you assert that. What collapsed? Are you really trying to use the fact that he missed the 1,500 model 3 deliveries as a reason for that? It seems the stock performed rather well. I think you overlooked the fact that he still sold more cars, overall, than was projected in Q3.
It is easy to knock a company that isnt making money. People did it for years with Amazon. What is different about Musk is it doesnt matter. He has an idea and people (the Street) gives him billions. He wants to drill tunnels, he gets billions for VC guys. Going to Mars...billions....he wants to build an igloo in the sahara, he would get billions for that.
One point for you to consider, tencent owns over 5% of Tesla...they arent about to let him go under. Elon has a black check since one of the largest Chinese companies is backing him.
First, I am not invested in Stocks. Any stocks.
Second. I meant the Elon Musk group.
Third, production problems seem to always magically arise in every single product they roll out, they get subsidies/bailouts and then continue to another product. In other words they keep a trail of hypes that keeps the market pumping. This is not sustainable.
This is what I am calling out. Obviously I am not going to make a post when it collapses. I will make a call before it does. I just made this post to demonstrate that top analysts came to the same conclusion as I have.
Selling overall cars means nothing when you cannot meet your capital demands for quarters. This is where the public falls short.
Anyways, the fact that you are comparing it with amazon shows that you bought the hype as well. Time will tell. I will be here.
I can forgive him that. He is pushing some markets and reviving some others, i don't mind some losses here and there.
Again this comment shows your inability to face being wrong.
10 years?
it hasn't even been a month boy and the shirtstorm has arrived
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
Also although it should be legit to say 5-10 years given the fact that the companies just started, no, I give it tops 1 since this post was written to all come down. I will keep posting the news here for your convenience.
3 months later Tesla stock has bounced back, The Economist runs articles about SpaceX and the upcoming BFR and on the streets of Luxembourg I see more and more Model S black taxis while a new Tesla Model X SUV seems to be replacing a Porsche Cayenne in front of a new house every week. Tesla might well be the product of a collective dellusion (a bit like religions) but that doesn't spell doom for it ... at least not for the next 2000 years ...
Kyriaco, why do you keep posting the same stats headed TECH? All are exactly the same, datewise, so they cannot be updates on each other.
If I may digress. Many years ago I had a programmer make a program for me. When speaking, socially, with a CEO of a multi-billion dollar corporation, he offered to buy the proggie for $400,000. I was not projecting that kind of earnings over five years, so I sold it. He then explained to me why he is not going to market the program.
Our company will earn $20 million from it over the next ten years - as long as we do not sell even one copy. We will pay for a professional to evaluate the program so as to enable us to enter it on our books as an asset of $20million. Then the IRS allows us to write off the value, at the numbers I've given you. If we sell even one copy, then the IRS will not accept our evaluation as being an asset for writing off.
It is one of the reasons I made the comment I did. Businessmen have their own reasons for doing what they do. Would you have imagined the worlds top banks would declare themselves about to go bankrupt? Once you saw they want billions from the goverments (from us), it sort of made sense, eh?
Now that the main auto manufacturers are trying to get into the game, I won't be surprised if he is receiving offers for a buy-out at some fancy high price.
Thanks for offering to keep us updated, as I look forward to finding out exactly what is being planned.
The point here is not Tesla's business strategy but if you read through my posts the mentality he is being promoting. When I say "I guess I was right about Tesla" my point was to demonstrate how a business being funded mainly from government subsidies cannot be sustainable. Add to that the proxy funded Solar City and Space X and you understand where this circus is headed.
I will keep posting the updates.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/tesla-nears-bear-market-territory-and-it-could-get-a-lot-worse.html?__source=Facebook
Exactly! Government should not be picking winners and losers by subsidies 👍 I know I’m late to seeing this post but wanted to give my thoughts anyway! I agree
I've got no objection to your posting updates. I have since realised that comments are being repeated, I return to where I made a recent comment and find two or three repeats. I also have not been able to post anything, but I can comment, so though I don't know what is happening, I see I was wrong in commenting about repeats.
I am not deeply into Tesla and so on, though I live fairly close to where he grew up. However, I mentioned to a businessman who does invest in the stock exchange and he told me that Toyota have already a 30% share in his cars.
Personally I believe it must be about time for him to sell off the majority of his shares; he is an innovator and should be concentrating on developing new ideas, not in running businesses. It is not easy to be an Accountant and a creative developer and once he is becoming more of an accountant, then it is time to move on.
Great points.
Of course, I could barely get off the floor from laughing to type this as I read the last sentence. "If any other company had this kind of government assistance I can't even begin to imagine what kind of electric cars we would all be driving today."
After reading that I last sentence I realized that the whole article is either farce or satire. I'm going with farce.
You could take it to mean that but I have seen enough hatchet jobs on Tesla to know that people actually believe what is in this article.
Looking at the comments, there were people who agreed with what was written so it could be possible this guy believes it.
Jeez, I guess you're probably right.
Now we're seeing that Tesla has pushed GM, Volvo and Mercedes to actually come into the modern automobile age by moving their lines to majority (and soon enough) only electric cars being produced. A few months ago those guys considered Electric to be gimmicks (see Bob Lutz).
At this point the path is littered with the bodies of those who predicted the demise of Tesla / Tesla Stock / Elon Musk. Heck, I think there's a special bar where Tesla short traders go to cry in their bourbon each night. They might be right this time around, and if they are I'll buy Tesla on the bounce, which would be great to get back in at $220.
I expect Q4 numbers will be very solid for Model 3 - and overall I'd expect 32-34K vehicles to hit the streets.
All while building the world's biggest battery for delivery in Australia. And, launching more satellites with reusable rockets. (Not sure where the hype and fraud are there)
I would love to see TSLA at $220 again. I dont think it is going to happen. Too many long term holders for it to drop back that far. It if approaches $300, buyers will jump in.
You are right, people have been announcing the demise of Tesla for a couple years. I watched one guy who admitted he thought AMZN was overpriced at $400 said that he is bearish on TSLA like he has been for tow years. His comment, why should I change now? Perhaps because you are WRONG.
Q4..Q1 next year....at some point Musk will get the 3 rolling off the assembly line in force. Right now, he is producing more electric cars than any other company in the world. He might not be able to keep that edge since he has some big competitors. That said, they all have to, at worst, retool, for electric or, more likely, build new factories. Well, guess what Ole Elon is doing...building more factories.