3 modest predictions for transportation technology in 2018

You practically have to predict the future to successfully build or make investments in startups. As a founder of Clearcover, a car insurance technology startup, and in my prior role as a venture capitalist at American Family Insurance, I’ve spent a lot of time making predictions about the future of transportation, mostly as it relates to technology and insurance.There’s just one problem: Forecasters, myself included, almost always get predictions wrong.
You see, an accurate prediction requires two things. The first is knowing the potential outcomes you can predict, and the second is knowing the probability that any specific outcome will occur. Most forecasters focus on the second item at the expense of the first. In other words, we spend too much time predicting the likelihood of things we already know, and not enough time exploring possibilities we haven’t yet considered.
So, while it’s fun to make flashy, specific predictions for the new year, my 2018 predictions focus on things that are intentionally broad. That means you aren’t likely to find these predictions to be true or false at the end of the year. Rather, they should foster discussion around what might be true or false (or some of both), so we can all learn a little more about what’s possible.