Automation, Artificial Intelligence and the Economy: Part 1 - An Introduction

The election of Donald Trump to the U.S. Presidency has highlighted the misplaced insecurities of millions of Americans who are dealing with the effects of globalization, automation, and a rapidly changing economy. While the populist right has scapegoated immigrants, foreign states such as China, and tax-hungry liberals on the coasts, the left seems unable or unwilling to correctly diagnose or deal with the root cause of these changes.

Nonetheless, there are massive economic trends that underlie the movement of income and wealth from domestic labor to a select group of global elites. These changes in the economy are likely to accelerate in the coming years, as corporations and governments look to cut costs by automating, employing intelligent systems, and reducing their reliance on human labor. In particular, the coming changes in the economy, society, and politics posed by artificial intelligence and automation will be nothing short of revolutionary.

Over the next few weeks, I will be publishing a series of pieces on Steemit discussing the broader implications of automation, artificial intelligence, and global economic realignment. The intent is to not only identify the potential upsides, but to critique the utopian narrative of some futurists in Silicon Valley, and provide a set of visions for the future--some promising, some dark, but all, until very recently, only the stuff of science fiction.

Next week, I will publish the first piece highlighting the technologies that will be coming online in the next ten to twenty years. From autonomous vehicles to advances in life-extension, the revolutionary technological changes of the next few decades will upend the way we live, work, and communicate. Futurists such as Ray Kurzweil see these trends accelerating to what is called the "singularity," a point beyond which AI will overtake human intelligence as the dominant force on the planet. Whether or not this change will be positive or negative for humanity overall will be left for future posts.

After next week's article, topics for discussion include:

• How AI and robotics in particular will disrupt the job market in coming decades. As automation becomes more technologically feasible, what jobs will disappear and which will proliferate? Will there be rampant unemployment? How will people earn a living if they have to compete with the free labor of robots?
• Larger economic implications of automation such as inequality, stresses on the public welfare system, and economic growth. How will the economy keep growing in a post-labor world? Will the economy of the future feature permanent recession and inequality à la the film Elysium or will it evolve into a post-currency system not unlike Star Trek's United Federation of Planets?
• The political and social implications of changing technology and the economy. Will social democracies survive the coming disruptions or is humanity doomed to technological autocracies or robotic apocalypse? How will the media and communications be used to manipulate the public or otherwise maintain social order?
• Potential political and economic solutions to the problems posed by the rapid changes in technology. Is a new social welfare state in order? Would something like Universal Basic Income, a job guarantee, or expanded universal benefits help offset the changes to the economy or are more radical changes necessary? What civil liberties protections would offset the power of surveillance and control in the presence of AI?

These topics may change as my thoughts on the issues evolve, but will look at the future with a skeptical and cautious eye. I will not be making definitive predictions, but elucidating a set of possibilities and potential stumbling blocks upon the way. Let me know in the comments if you are interested in hearing about particular topics as I write!