You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
RE: No Drivers Required....ANYWHERE
You say decade? I bet in 3-4 years 90% of cars will electric self driving cars. Which personally I think is awesome, Us people who like gas hot rods can still drive them without less regular people caring, hands down though, I can not wait to get a tesla.
In the US, the average age of a car is 11 years...it is a long cycle so I dont see it in the time frame you are proposing.
Even electric, only accounts for 1% of the US new car market. I foresee exponential growth in that arena but it still falls short of 90%. We will be lucky to see 1/3 the new cars sold in 3-4 years being electric.
I mean you realize that electric cars will be much cheaper than gas cars in that time frame. They will be way cheaper. Way cheaper than any 5-10 year old average merc, bmw caddy ect. Cheaper than maintaining a old truck or van ect. I really hands down make the bet they will be pouring out till most cars are electric then all those factory will turn to making components for robots/space. The shear size of manufacturing buildins/goals with what elon and vw alone are doing will see that done. Its going to happen fast just like the adoption of block chain tech. Its still new today, tomorrow it will be in past lol
Cheaper than any 5-10 year old average Merc?
Let me see the 5-10 year old car is paid for, the EV has to be purchased...
How exactly is it cheaper?
As for Elon, he is doing great things but your numbers are way off. There ar roughly 85M new cars sold in the world. Elon's Tesla, which I own stock in as a disclaimer, will be lucky to be doing 1M-1.5M new cars a year in 3 years time and he is the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in the world.
To get to roughly 76 million new cars in the next 3-4 years, the EV market would require over 2000% growth annually....there were 750K sold around the world in 2016...even 100% annual growth only puts that at 6M in three years.....nowhere near the 90% you propose.
I appreciate your optimism and it is the future, but not in three years. It will take a decade to filter through.
Elon is not the only one doing this. Not to mw tion the second you switch the other auto dealers it will quick. Maybe longer than 3. But when the self driving cars out your going to have vehicles that last longer and don't get in accidents near is often that's won't need replacing or fixing anywhere near as often.
Not to mention other forms of transportation that will become popular in the coming yeara as