Stop freaking out, the energy revolution is here. Almost.

With all of the recent happenings in the world, it’s easy to become worrisome about what will become of this planet. With everything ranging from nuclear warfare, to global warming to the rise of fundamentalist islam, there is much to be worried about. In light of these fearsome possibilities, there is one glimmer of hope for the future that is also possible. Current trends and data point to the very real possibility of our world’s energy structure becoming completely transformed in the coming century. I believe that certain key events such as the lower cost of solar panel production and vehicle electrification will set in motion a cascade of events that is likely to completely revitalize ecomomies and the environment as a whole. Are we now standing on the precipice of a complete shift in industry? I believe that we are. This article will attempt to highlight why I believe that in the near future we will be seeing a complete change on how energy is generated and consumed around the world.

How I became interested in energy consumption

My interest in sustainable energy started around 2010 when I switched from driving a truck to a used prius because of a long commute. People I knew assumed that I was just trying to save the environment. While I believe that saving the environment is a worthy cause, my main reason at the time was that I really just needed to save on some gas and not make as much a dent to my budget. As a result, I began to see firsthand the many benefits on how a more efficient car could change my life and other people’s lives for the better. In short, it ultimately provided me with more driving range for less money, more options and more freedom. As my perspective began to shift and as I began to learn more and more about the subject, the more I began to believe that as a society we can and should benefit from more energy efficient technology in the future. Since that time, I’ve been interested in the development of electric vehicles, solar, and other technology and how it can change our lives for the better.

The cost of solar panel production continues to be driven down

One of the most basic tenets of sustainable energy is alternative, renewable resources such as solar. As technology continues to advance, the cost of producing solar panels continues to fall with the price of solar panels being reduced from 5 cents a watt 10 years ago to only around .74 cents per watt today. In fact, switching to solar today is cheaper than using conventional electricity sources for most people. With more and more companies now investing heavily in solar and the growth of overseas companies continuing to expand, it’s becoming clear that China and other countries are investing heavily in this kind of technology. As China, the U.S. and other key players become more and more committed to staking out a claim in solar, it can be safe to assume that competition will also increase as well. This competition begets other competition until it becomes a cycle where you end up with a range of products that are both affordable and of quality build.

Solar is also becoming adopted at an ever increasing rate

In 2006, only 30,000 homes were outfitted with solar panels in the United States. That number has spiked to over a million houses today and is expected to rise in coming years. In addition, many businesses are also given tax cuts when complying with green initiatives. It’s likely that business will continue to seek any kind of tax advantage available while at the same time, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, many businesses care about reputation and becoming seen as a responsible company in terms of energy use seeks to motivate many of them as well.

Tesla

When people think of the electric car maker Tesla owned by Elon Musk, they think Tesla is making only electric vehicles. Interestingly, Tesla is not only focused on electric cars but is also interested in developing battery technology to sell to other electric vehicle manufacturers in addition to a range of other technologies. Elon Musk has some pretty lofty aspirations some of which include making Tesla a leader in the up and coming energy revolution as being recently quoted,

In order to solve the sustainable-energy question, we need sustainable energy production, which is going to come primarily in the form of solar -- overwhelmingly in the form of solar, mind you -- then combine that with stationary storage and electric vehicles, and you have a complete solution for a sustainable future. ... And I think those are the three things Tesla should be providing.

In this quote, Musk is also referring to the direction his company is taking with regard to battery storage solutions such as the Tesla Powerwall, a home energy storage device designed to store solar generated electricity. To also back up some of the claims, Tesla is currently building a gigantic facility in the middle of the Nevada desert known as the Gigafactory with completion scheduled in 2020. This factory is dedicated to building new lithium ion batteries to be installed in vehicles which can even be sold to other automakers at an affordable price and potentially changing the face of the entire automotive industry.

There will be a huge shift towards electric vehicles in the very near future.

With transportation being the largest contributor to fossil fuels use, a shift towards electric vehicles would dramatically reduce our addiction to oil. As people start to realize that they don’t need to pay for gas anymore, they will start to feel like they are getting ripped off at the pump. As of late, there are relatively few options for drivers looking to drive electric. Those that do have to compromise either in terms of electric driving range or price. That is about to end. As soon as 2017 (and late 2016), drivers will now have the choice of purchasing the Chevy Bolt, an all-electric car with a range of around 200 miles and in the $30,000 USD range. Shortly after that, Tesla will release the Model 3, a more affordable version from its electric car inventory, also sold for around 30K and rolling out sometime around 2018. Preorders for the model 3 sold 276,000 in the first 72 hours with people even camping out to put down their deposit! All of this in spite of the model 3 not coming out for several years and clearly demonstrating that the demand for electric vehicles with functional range is high.

All of this will be followed closely with more and more carmakers competing for a similar share of the market. This phase marks the second generation of vehicle electrification. With the first phase only marketed to a niche group of early adopters with the current selection of electric cars. The second phase will seek mass adoption. People today don’t want to pay for a vehicle that has a limited range. However, once we start seeing electric ranges available over 200 mi (as is the case of the bolt) people will be more open to buying an electric car.

Winners and losers

An argument can also be made that as a person living in a society which currently relies primarily on fossil fuel technology, we should be happy about moving forward with sustainables. While it’s become pretty widely accepted that fossil fuels pollute, what I find more troublesome is that when you rely on foreign oil, you are supporting middle-eastern oil producing countries. Many of which are dictatorial and unstable regimes. There’s been way too many wars fought over the issue. What it comes down to is that if we can reduce our dependence on foreign oil, we will strengthen our economy and improve our standing in the world.

There’s more to it besides just solar and electric vehicles.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about peak oil and how it will spell disaster for the human race, but does this still even apply? Since oil has recently dropped to around $50 a barrel can you still justify continuous profit based on out of control demand? Some of that is based off of the fact that many countries are now currently setting aggressive standards towards meeting energy demands for the future in terms of renewable energy sources. While It’s true that sustainable energy production is nowhere near where it needs to be right now in terms of efficiency in comparison to coal, oil and natural gas, it’s not the only kind of technology that is going to pull us away from oil. Aside from the more conventional sources of sustainable energy such as wind, solar and geothermal, everyday there are new types of technologies being developed towards these goals. Some of them are good for the environment and some are not as good, but as technology continues to advance at an ever increasing pace can you still make the argument that we’re still going to be addicted to the same type of driver of economic growth that has led progress for the last two centuries? My point being is that even with all of the gloom and doom lately, with these thoughts in mind it’s easy to see that a lot can be said for the direction that we’re currently headed.

#technology #energy #solar #electricvehicles #tesla
Thanks for reading!