Why has China never recovered Taiwan?
China has not "recovered" Taiwan due to a combination of historical, political, military, and international factors. Here's an overview of the main reasons:
1. Historical Context
After the Chinese Civil War (1927–1949), the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) government, led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC), led by Mao Zedong, established the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Since then, Taiwan has operated as a separate political entity, although both sides initially claimed to be the legitimate government of all China.
2. U.S. Military Presence and Support
The United States has played a significant role in preventing China from reclaiming Taiwan by force. Following the Korean War, the U.S. stationed its 7th Fleet in the Taiwan Strait and entered into the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which commits the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself. Although the U.S. maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity," it has consistently provided military aid and technology to Taiwan.
3. Military Risks
Any attempt by China to reclaim Taiwan militarily would be highly risky and costly. Taiwan has a strong, well-equipped military, and a conflict could escalate into a regional or even global war, potentially drawing in the U.S., Japan, and other allies. The waters around Taiwan are heavily fortified, and its geography (mountainous terrain) would make an amphibious invasion extremely difficult.
4. Economic and Diplomatic Costs
Taiwan is a significant economic player, especially in high-tech industries, including semiconductors (e.g., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC, is crucial to the global supply chain). A war or forced unification would destabilize global markets and economies, including China’s own. Additionally, a military conflict would likely lead to global sanctions and further damage China's relations with many countries.
5. International Diplomacy and Recognition
While the PRC has pushed for international recognition as the sole government of China, most countries, including the U.S., maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan. China's desire to be seen as a responsible global power also limits its ability to use force without risking severe international backlash.
6. Taiwanese Identity and Politics
Over the years, a distinct Taiwanese identity has emerged, and many Taiwanese now see themselves as separate from mainland China. Polls show that a large percentage of Taiwan’s population opposes unification under the current circumstances, preferring the status quo or even full independence. Taiwan's democratic system and vibrant political culture further complicate any potential reunification efforts.
7. "Peaceful Reunification" Strategy
China's official policy is to seek peaceful reunification with Taiwan, though it has not ruled out the use of force. The PRC has focused on a long-term strategy that includes economic incentives, cultural exchange, and diplomatic pressure in hopes of eventually swaying Taiwan toward unification without military intervention.
8. Cross-Strait Relations and Ambiguity
Taiwan operates under a state of de facto independence, with its own government, military, and constitution. However, it has avoided declaring formal independence, which would likely provoke a direct military response from China. This ambiguous status, known as the "One China Policy," allows for a delicate balance, where Taiwan continues to function independently without openly challenging Beijing's claims.
In summary, the combination of military deterrence, economic risks, international diplomacy, Taiwanese public opinion, and China’s current strategy of seeking peaceful unification has prevented Beijing from taking decisive action to recover Taiwan by force.