Beginning of the end of the opposition in Syria?
News reports and monitoring organizations in Syria say that infighting between the opposition groups HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and Ahrar al-Sham in Idlib province has killed several fighters. According to some social media reports the fights started when Ahrar al-Sham arrested fighters belonging to HTS. After that it seems like the fight between the two groups spread to the whole province. Checkpoints and border crossing are of highest interest, as one needs to control them to be have freedom of movement and also to collect tolls from civilians and other people.
The most current situation on the map you can find here:
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
The relation between HTS and Ahrar al-Sham has been strained especially since the early year 2017 when parts of Ahrar al-Sham changed and became parts of HTS. This is though the fieriest fights between these organizations that I remember. Some Free Syria Army groups seem to support Ahrar al-Sham in the fights. Opposition infighting is weakening the different opposition groups against Assad’s regime and his allies. I believe the government’s strategy by moving those opposition fighters that have surrendered in different parts of Syria to Idlib has been to create and increase the infighting between the opposition.
The Syrian opposition (ISIS and the kurds excluded) can simplified be divided into three main groups; HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), Ahrar al-Sham and Fee Syrian Army (FSA).
HTS was formed in the beginning of 2017 when Jabhat Fatah al-Sham merged with other jihadist groups. Jabhat Fatah al-Sham was formerly named al-Nusra Front and had strong ties to al-Qaeda. (I guess HTS still has strong ties to al-Qaeda or is in fact a branch of it).
Ahrar al-Sham is according to most a slightly less jihadistic movement than HTS and sometimes compared with the Talibans in Afghanistan.
Free Syrian Army was originally founded on Syrian Army units that defected in the beginning of the war. They are usually seen as the most democratic and liberal choice of the Syrian opposition. FSA is a very loose banner of different groups and not an organization. This makes them the weakest part of these three opposition parts.
The opposition is though only one part of the Syrian War. Other main participants are the government (backed up by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah), the kurds (backed by the US) and ISIS (=Islamic State, Daesh, ISIL).
If you aren’t familiar with the main picture of participants of the Syrian War you can check this short video by BBC on Youtube: (I know it’s not the newest but it’s short and main picture of the participant is pretty much the same as in October 2015, even if there has been a lot of other changes):
DISCLAIMER: The information in this text is collected mostly from my memory as I have followed the Syrian situation for a while now. That also means that I can be wrong or even the original news (I have read) might be wrong.
It’s hard to get an exact picture of what is really happening in Syria, but one thing that I am pretty sure of is that it is terrible for most of the people there.
The infightings might very well have something to do with the ceasefire between the opposition and the government, that Russia, Turkey and Iran negotiated. Even if the ceasefire hasn't hold it at least momentarily eased the fights between these parts and probably have (had) impact on the relations between different opposition groups.
HTS has neverfollowed these ceasefires. I am not sure if Ahrar al-Sham accepted this one, but I think so. Or I am wrong?
Informative post, thanks. What do you think of the news that Trump is ending military aid to some opposition groups? Some see it as helping the Russians and Assad, but weapons have ended up in the hands of ISIS and AQ in the past through this program and arming terrorists that hate the West always seemed a bad idea to me.
Thanks! Good question, actually I have not looked up what groups they're ending the support to, so I am not sure. But, the thing you mention is the main concern and probably one of the biggest reasons why they are ending the support. In deed it is also weakening those opposition groups in comparition to Russia/Assad/Iran, but I would say the government has a strong enough upperhand anyway.
Would be a little surprised if US gonna stop the support for some of the opposition groups in the south/southeast as it has seemed to me, that the cooperation brought some gain. Besides that I guess US will stick with the kurds.
Yes, it was always a bad situation. I dont like Assad but you dont want to give aid and material to groups that want to commit terrorist groups, and that has happened in the past, either. I'm not sure what groups exactly either. I thought I read it earlier but cant find it now. And yes, I'm sure we will continue helping the Kurds. I met a Kurd once and I've never met anyone that loves Americans so much.
Trevor Noah on the health care bill's demise and why Trump is like Groot (VIDEO) | Slate
https://steemit.com/news/@nubian-oracle/trevor-noah-on-the-health-care-bill-s-demise-and-why-trump-is-like-groot-video
U guys in America have an interesting time now these days...
This is going to be interesting. The FSA was supporting Al Nusra in the past. And they are basically controlling Idlib since a few months. What is the Anti IS Coalition going to do ?. They also wanted to fight Terrorism in Syria and Iraq much stronger than they did in the last Years. I think there were News about America and his emancipations with Al Nusra. I am not sure though.
FSA, Ahrar al-Sham and HTS (earlier Nusra) have all cooperated for most of the times but they have also had infighting every now and then. This year I don't think FSA and Ahrar al-Sham have had fights against each other but I might be wrong. Fights between FSA and Ahrar al-Sham on one side and HTS (Nusra) on the other have been occured several times though.
About controlling Idlib I have understood that these three entities have controlled it (together or each some parts of the province) for several years now.
Good question what US-led anti-IS coalition gonna do. US have at least bombed HTS (Nusra) camps and headquarters several times this year.
But in deed, as you wrote @anarchyevo, interesting times ahead. Unfortunately I don't think it will improve the situation for the civilians.
( Unfortunately I don't think it will improve the situation for the civilians. )
Yeah thats for sure. This explosive Situation could be worse then it was before. When Terror Groups are starting to split into different parts then the Situation gets worse cause they are starting to fight each other. Thats probably good for the interests of Governments. But not for the civilians.