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RE: SPS cost-benefit metrics after one month of daily downloads
The proposition is interesting, as is your analysis.
I'd submit that someone could make up their mind for a takeover, and then quietly program bots to acquire modest amounts of Steem on downticks/down days... over maybe a year or two. Less likely to drive up the price significantly, particularly since we have lots of people in this community who materially depend on their rewards for daily living expenses.
My guess is that you could likely nab $20-30K worth of Steem per day — in small transactions — multiply by a year or so, and you've got a chunk of change. And Steem held in multiple wallets on multiple exchanges (and maybe some in cold wallets) would be harder to track to a single point.
But it IS all highly hypothetical...
Maybe. I don't do much in the way of trading, so I don't have a guess about the market liquidity, but the total new STEEM production per day is 90k * 0.16, or $14K (at current prices). Based on my limited knowledge, I would expect the strategy to include off-market purchases of some of the top-tier accounts. Interestingly, I noticed this morning that HIVE's corresponding number is 0.85 (thanks to a deep reservoir of exfiltrated wallets), so I guess someone would target the HIVE DAO before the SPS.
Yep. Totally impossible to anticipate how the system would adapt to any attempt to gain control. Interests me as an indicator of value changing over time, not as a predictor of anything that's really going to happen.