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RE: Sorry Kurzweil But The Singularity Is Not Near
Thanks for your article!
There are many overlapping technological developments which could / will reinforce each other, e.g.
-artificial intelligence
-blockchain
-3D printing
-energy (nuclear fusion, solar, etc.) --> energy abundance would change almost everything
-nanotechnology
-gene editing
-robotics
-quantum computing (which could solve the problem of the transistors' size)
Up to now, Kurzweil's predictions have been quite exact.
Great reply.
These are all very interesting technologies but my guess is that advancements in all of these fields will be exponential at first, then they will taper and eventually stop far short of the so-called singularity.
Who knows? Kurzweil says it will all happen 2045 so we have 27 years to wait and watch.
If I am wrong and extreme life extension falls out of the mix then I will happily write a retraction to this post on my 150th birthday.
Let's hope he is right ;-)
Didn't Kurzweil also predict a number of things that were supposed to happen already, but have not? I seem to recall there were a number he stated were to happen by 2018 that we haven't seen materialize.
I could be wrong. I have been before and will be again.