COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2018: BIG Ten Conference Preview & Predictions
SteemSports Presenter:@thesportsguy
SteemSports Editor:@scottybuckets
Happy Sunday everyone and welcome back to our ongoing build-up to the college football season! Yesterday, four games kicked off the college football season, however, only 6 FBS teams were in-action and no schools from the "power 5" conferences. Next weekend will mark the true kickoff to college football season in earnest and actually starts on Thursday night when a ranked Central Florida teams opens up their season at UConn. Before we get to all of next week's action, however, it's time to take a look at one of those "power" conferences - the BIG 10.
The conference is stacked once again this year and finds themselves with 5 teams ranked in the initial coaches poll and have 6 teams ranked in our official preseason poll. The West figures to be Wisconsin's to lose once again, but the Hawkeyes are closing in as they return a talented signal-caller, maybe the best tight end in the nation, and a solid overall defensive unit. Behind the Hawkeyes, Purdue, Nebraska, and Northwestern are expected to battle it out for third in the division, as both Purdue and Nebraska should see some improvement.
The East will once again be dominated by the usual suspects - Ohio State and Penn State are highly regarded universally heading into the season, and Michigan State will be much-improved and feature a very solid defense. Michigan is expected to be back in the conversation after slipping to 8-5 a season ago. And really, that record was because of a standout defensive side that has been Jim Harbaugh's mark so far on the Wolverines. They struggled mightily on offense, especially in the passing game, where they looked absolutely horrendous for most of the season. A new QB has seemingly rejuvenated Wolverines, but more on that later.
Our BIG 10 Conference preview starts in the West, where the Wisconsin Badgers bring back one of the best teams they've ever had. The Badgers return all 5 offensive lineman from an O-Line that rated out as the nation's best a season ago. They have 3-4 All-Americans up front, depending on what publication you like, and all of them are expected to be playing on Sundays. Running behind that O-Line is one of the premier rushers in the entire country in talented HB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor set the FBS Freshman rushing record (1,977yds) a season ago and finished his Freshman season as one of the Heisman Finalists. He is one of the front-runners for the award this season, right next to Stanford HB Bryce Love. Taylor isn't the only weapon the Badgers have, however as Junior QB Alex Hornibrook returns once again to lead the offense. Hornibrook is entering his third year as the Badgers starter and already has 26 games under his belt. He threw for 2,644yds and 25TDs last season, but will need to cut-down on the 15 INTs he threw as well. Defensively, the Badgers lost some talent from one of the nation's top units from a season ago, and have holes at each level, but also return talent at each level. They have All-American talent in LB T.J. Edwards and S D'Cota Dixon returning to lead what is still figured to be a very good defense. It all adds up to perhaps the highest expectations that Madison has ever seen. Three brutal road games will most-likely determine just how far the Badgers go, with the conference opener @ Iowa, a trip to Michigan a couple weeks later, and a late-season trip to Penn State being the three games that will likely define Bucky's season.
Right behind Wisconsin in the West, the Iowa Hawkeyes are expected to push the Badgers for a spot in the conference title game. Quarterback Nathan Stanley put together an impressive Sophomore campaign, throwing for 2,432yds and 26TDs. He only threw 6 INTs and completed 55.8% of his passes. With Stanley returning after his breakout campaign, Iowa figures to have one of the better passers in the conference, and he has a big-time target in TE Noah Fant. Fant may very well be the best tight end in the country after a sophomore season that saw him haul in 30 passes for 494 yards and 11 TDs. He's a 1st-Team Preseason All-American, and will be a big-time weapon in the red zone. They did lose HB Akrum Wadley who ran for over 1,100 yards and racked up another 353 yards receiving, as they will be breaking in a completely unexperienced backfield. Defensively, the Hawkeyes figure to be solid against the run, and although they lost one of the top DBs in the country in Josh Jackson, the unit should be pretty good overall. The schedule breaks in the Hawkeyes' favor as well with their first four games all coming at home, including the conference-opener against Wisconsin. Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State are all missing, leaving a trip to Penn State on Oct. 27th as their toughest road test. Look for the Hawkeyes to push for 9 wins and possibly 10 with a bowl win.
Behind Iowa is a three-way log-jam between the much-improved Boilermakers of Purdue, the Scott-Frost led Nebraska Cornhuskers, and the Northwestern Wildcats. Purdue actually has two options at QB, and both had promising seasons a year ago. Junior Elijah Sindelar threw for 2,099 yards with 18TDs and 7INTs as a sophomore, and senior David Blough managed to throw for 1,103 yards with 9TDs and 4INTs. Blough completed a very healthy 65.0% of his passes compared to 56.8% for Sindelar. Whomever the signal-caller is, the Boilermakers have plenty of options to throw it to, as last year's balanced attack returns for the most part. The schedule will most-likely prevent Purdue from improving much on last year's 7-6 mark, as their first 5 games are all against teams projected to make bowls games (NW, Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Boston College, at Nebraska). They also have to face Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa in consecutive weeks during conference play and still have Wisconsin for their second-to-last game. A 6-6 mark should be considered a smashing success given the overall difficulty of their schedule.
Along with Purdue, the most-intriguing team from the West may be the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Head coach Scott Frost arrives back in Lincoln after a mind-boggling turn-around job after just two seasons at Central Florida. UCF went winless (0-12) the year before Frost's arrival in 2016. He went 6-7 in his first season and then of course, UCF finished a perfect 13-0 last year, ending with a self-proclaimed National Championship. He is now taxed with bringing glory back to his former alma mater where he compiled an impressive 24-2 record over two years as the Cornhuskers starting QB from 1996-97. It will take a bit longer for Frost to turn-around a stagnant Nebraska program, however. The schedule will be difficult with road games against Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Iowa, as well as a home showdown with Michigan State. None-the-less we like the Huskers to jump out to a 3-0 start after a manageable non-conference slate, and they should get to 6-7 wins and back to a bowl game after a disappointing 4-8 campaign last year.
Rounding out the West, are Northwestern and Minnesota, who should both be able to get to 5 wins, but will have problems with the overall depth of the conference. Both are lacking in enough play-making talent to make much of jump up the tier line in the West. Northwestern could break-into that next tier once-again, but they have two different very difficult 3-game stretches in their schedule that will likely temper expectations this season. As for the Golden Gophers, they went 5-7 in P.J. Fleck's first season, and not much is expected to change until they figure out the QB position. Last seasons combo of Demry Croft and Conor Rhoda produced a paltry 9TDs and 11INTs. That won't get it done. Lovie Smith finds himself on the hot-seat as he inherited a mess at Illinois when he took over, but has yet to really tidy anything up. The defensive mind has only produced a 5-19 mark in his first two seasons, and this Illini team just doesn't have the talent to match up with the cream of the conference. Look for another long season in Champaign.
Switching our focus back to the East division, it is once again the four usual suspects as Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State are all highly regarded heading into the season. The Buckeyes lost all-everything QB J.T. Barrett, who did severe damage to Big 10 defenses over the past four seasons. They return a young, very talented backfield, however, led by sophomore HB J.K. Dobbins (preseason Honorable Mention All-American), and they have NFL potential at the tackle spots along the O-line. The defense lost a ton to the NFL draft, but still has plenty of NFL talent at their disposal once again, led by All-American 1st Team DL Nick Bosa, and S Jordan Fuller. The cupboard is stocked once-again in Columbus, but replacing Barrett will still bring some challenges. It remains to be seen how the Urban Meyer/Zach Smith scandal will impact the season, and if it causes any lingering distractions. That being said, the talent is there, the coaching is still there, and the results should be there once again for the Buckeyes. A non-conference game at TCU on Sept 15th is shaping up to be a big-time showdown, and their trip to Happy Valley two weeks later to take on Penn State should go a long way to shaping the East's final standings. The schedule will feature a trip to Michigan State and end with the rivalry-game with Michigan. It won't be an easy schedule, but we feel the Buckeyes do just enough to win-out a tie-breaker and get back to the Big 10 Title game yet again.
Right behind Ohio State, are the Nittany Lions of Penn State. While PSU lost stud HB Saquon Barkley to the NFL, they return one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Trace McSorley. He threw for 3,570 yards, 28TDs, 10INTs, and completed 66.5% of his passes. He's a legitimate Heisman candidate and will be by far the most experienced signal-caller between the quartet of OSU, Michigan, MSU, and PSU. His arm, along with a talented defensive line, and deep defensive backfield should be a successful recipe in 2018 that should push the Nittany Lions to 10 victories. The big question mark is a very thin linebacker unit, where PSU may need some freshman to make some key contributions. Look for PSU to live-up to their top 10 preseason ranking.
Behind the Nittany Lions, it gets very interesting. The two Michigan rivals are expected to be right there, duking it out for a potential spot in the Big 10 title game. While those lofty expectations could certainly happen, it will be a difficult road. The expectations for the Wolverines, however, couldn't be higher. In the last week, Michigan Alum (and former Heisman winner) Desmond Howard predicted Michigan would win the National Championship and fellow ESPN analyst (and Ohio State Alum) Kirk Herbstreit also stated he was very high on the Wolverines and that if they could get past Notre Dame in South Bend in the opener, that they could gain a lot of steam and possibly roll to the Big 10 title game. My, how things can change in a year. Last season, Michigan struggled to a disappointing 8-5 season, that had many questioning just how good Harbaugh is. After adding Ole Miss quarterback transfer Shea Patterson (2,259 yards, 17TD, 9INT in 7 games last year), the expectations have jumped right back up there. The defense is stacked once again after finishing 3rd in the nation a year ago in total defense (which also shows just how pitiful the offense was last season as the two teams that finished ahead of Michigan in total defense; Alabama & Wisconsin enjoyed banner years). Devin Bush Jr. is among the best linebackers in the nation, and DL Chase Winovich leads a very, very good, and deep defensive line. Look for the Wolverines to be significantly better on offense, and if they can go into Columbus and steal a win to close out the season, could find themselves in the BIG 10 title game.
For the Spartans of Michigan State, it's all about the defense. Sparty should have no trouble getting to the QB behind a deep defensive front, and should be very good at stopping the run. They finished with the 7th best D in all of college football a season ago, and were the # 2 defense against the run. They have a pair of stud defensive tackles (sounds familiar doesn't it?) and have size and experience at cornerback. Cornerback/safety David Dowell had 5 INTs a season ago and is a preseason Honorable Mention All-American. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is one of ten returning starters on that side of the ball, and has a pair of 50-catch receivers returning in Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart. The schedule gods gave Sparty a big break as well, as both Wisconsin and Iowa are absent, and huge showdowns with Michigan and Ohio State both fall at home. Take advantage and win those two - and MSU very well could find themselves in the BIG 10 title game.
Behind the Spartans it gets very murky in the East, as Indiana should be somewhat competitive, but will struggle against the cream of the crop. Perennial crap-tacular programs in Maryland and Rutgers round out the East, and don't figure to play much into the equation. The defensive talent just ins't there for either program to realistically be able to compete with the conferences' better teams. While a lot of publications are a bit higher on Maryland, we just don't see it - road games at Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State, along with home games against Ohio State and Michigan State, don't figure to leave much room for improvement. An upset of # 23 Texas in the opener, could change the trajectory of the season, but either way, the conference slate will be extremely challenging.
BIG TEN CONFERENCE Predictions
WEST DIVISION
WISCONSIN (7-2, 11-2) *♔
IOWA (6-3, 9-3)
PURDUE (4-5, 6-6)
NEBRASKA (4-5, 7-5)
NORTHWESTERN (4-5, 5-7)
MINNESOTA (3-6, 5-7)
ILLINOIS (2-7, 4-8)
EAST DIVISION
OHIO STATE (7-2, 10-3) *
MICHIGAN (7-2, 9-3)
PENN STATE (7-2, 10-2)
MICHIGAN STATE (6-3, 9-3)
INDIANA (3-6, 5-7)
MARYLAND (2-7, 4-8)
RUTGERS (1-8, 3-9)
♔ - WISCONSIN over Ohio State in BIG TEN Championship Game; WISC Conference Champions
In the end, we took the Badgers to get past the Buckeyes in the conference title game. This Wisconsin team is built for Ohio State, and while they came within a couple of first downs of defeating the Buckeyes in last year's Big 10 Title game, we feel the Badgers will have enough firepower and experience to get over the hump and defeat OSU in this year's conference title game. The experience of Hornibrook at QB and the rest of the O-Line gives the Badgers the slightest of edges.
Player to Watch:
Trace McSorely QB PENN STATE
2017: 3,570 yards passing; 28TD; 10INT; 66.5 comp. %; 153.7 rating
Offensive Player of the Year:
Jonathan Taylor HB WISCONSIN
2017: 1,977 yards rushing; 13TD; 6.6ypc
Defensive Player of the Year:
Devin Bush Jr. LB MICHIGAN
2017: 95 total tackles; 10.0 for loss; 5.5 sacks; 1 INT
Taylor was the easy pick for offensive player of the year after his monster freshman campaign, and should run wild again in 2018 behind the best O-line in college football. QB Trace McSorley and QB Nathan Stanley could push Taylor for the award as could Ohio State tailback J.K. Dobbins. The defensive player of the year pick was basically a toss-up between Bush, who ultimately got our nod, fellow Michigan DT Chase Winovich (19.0 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks in 17'), Ohio State all-everything DL Nick Bosa (8.5 sacks in 17'), and Wisconsin LB T.J. Edwards (11.0 tackles for loss, 4 INTs in 17'). All four are deserving picks and all have the ability to take home some hardware at the end of the season.
That concludes our BIG 10 conference preview, as always, please share your thoughts in the comments section - who did we get right? Who did we get wrong? The major kickoff to the season is less than a week away! Be sure to check back for much, much more of our ongoing coverage of the 2018 college football season!
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Sorry to ask, why is it called "football" and not handball when it's being played most or wholly with the hands