10-01-17 End of MLB Betting Experiment Results

The End of My NO LA DODGERS Grand Experiment

For those of you who care and have followed my betting experiment, thank you! Now that the regular season has ended, I'm posting the final tally of my NO DODGERS bets.

Just to summarize... the bet strategy was that since the Dodgers had gotten off to such a hot start --- and that it is very difficult for teams to win 100+ games in a regular season -- the probability in the math was that the Dodgers would revert back to the "normal statistical mean". The general consensus is that over the course of the 162 game season, even the really good teams only win around 60% of the games. That means they are losing the other 40%. So, even if I was just 40% right when betting against the Dodgers for every remaining game after the All Star Break, I would make money. I started with $1000 USD in an offshore account and was determined to see if my theory would work. My typical bet was initially around 5% of my account, but when I was just betting 1 game each night, I was only risking 1.25 - 1.5% per bet.

The Ups and Downs

It turns out, I was close to being right. They won 104 games -- more than the average "good team", which as a percentage is 64%. Based on the Winning Percentages needed to Break Even chart, if my Underdog odds were around +155, and I won 40% of my bets, I should at least break even.
The problem with my strategy is that betting a chaotic system, like sports/baseball, can really test your resolve. I had some early success with other baseball picks, but eventually just dedicated my efforts to betting against the Dodgers, and that was not easy to stomach. If you were following them during the season, they went on a MASSIVE WINNING STREAK (uggghhh) after the All Star Break. I was really starting to "panic" thinking I had just picked the worst possible team for my betting strategy. But in the end, perseverance paid off, as they went on a HUGE LOSING STREAK before re-balancing to a more normal win/loss ratio near the end of the season.

The Numbers

As you can hopefully see, I made 72 bets and won 29 of them (which equates to the 40% I was expecting - (yea, I was actually right!), The net profit was $54.71, which is a 6.45% ROI. Since my average odds of +246 was better than break-even +155 odds, I made money. Obviously, there are probably better ways to make a 6.45% return on an investment, but not if you like to gamble. I didn't make a enough to retire, but with higher bet amounts, and a team that doesn't win over 100 games, I might have done better. Overall, I'd call it a successful experiment and would probably do it again next season