Chance to hit statistics [update] - Steem Monsters
[Update] Turns out that archers logic had some bug that was been fixed very fast. That's very good for SM but my stats are now useless. I will try to make another one in few days with new data.
Since I saw few people were interested to see how hit chance looks like in SM, I did quick check of last 161230 battles (more or less current season) and calculated how often enemies with given speed were hit or not. Including if they have flying or dodge abilities.
Battles with True Aim were excluded.
Magic attack, poison damage and blast are also excluded because they always hit.
Table fields:
Speed
Shows defender speed and his abilities
F for Flying, D for Dodge
3-F-D means Attacker was trying to hit Defender of speed 3 who has Flying and DodgeTotal - hits and miss added together to calculate Chance to hit %
Table is sorted by Chance to hit.
Small sample may give way off results due to random generator and bad luck.
Melee Attacker
Defender Speed | Hits | Misses | Total | Chance to hit % |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 301420 | 3239 | 304659 | 98.94 |
2 | 475195 | 7002 | 482197 | 98.55 |
3 | 378775 | 19637 | 398412 | 95.07 |
4 | 149713 | 16424 | 166137 | 90.11 |
5 | 37218 | 7028 | 44246 | 84.12 |
2-D | 5 | 1 | 6 | 83.33 |
6 | 28039 | 8088 | 36127 | 77.61 |
2-F | 19688 | 6741 | 26429 | 74.49 |
1-F | 2655 | 923 | 3578 | 74.20 |
7 | 482 | 175 | 657 | 73.36 |
3-F | 31552 | 12110 | 43662 | 72.26 |
4-D | 3455 | 1475 | 4930 | 70.08 |
3-D | 153 | 66 | 219 | 69.86 |
4-F | 6830 | 3080 | 9910 | 68.92 |
8 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 68.42 |
5-D | 3349 | 1898 | 5247 | 63.83 |
5-F | 2914 | 1826 | 4740 | 61.48 |
6-F | 2741 | 1979 | 4720 | 58.07 |
6-D | 4472 | 3436 | 7908 | 56.55 |
7-F | 107 | 92 | 199 | 53.77 |
4-F-D | 63 | 57 | 120 | 52.50 |
3-F-D | 8 | 9 | 17 | 47.06 |
7-D | 27 | 35 | 62 | 43.55 |
5-F-D | 1221 | 1868 | 3089 | 39.53 |
6-F-D | 833 | 1464 | 2297 | 36.26 |
7-F-D | 3 | 18 | 21 | 14.29 |
8-D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 |
Ranged Attacker
Defender Speed | Hits | Misses | Total | Chance to hit % |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 245265 | 0 | 245265 | 100.00 |
2 | 292324 | 0 | 292324 | 100.00 |
2-D | 4 | 0 | 4 | 100.00 |
3 | 242314 | 0 | 242314 | 100.00 |
4 | 79048 | 0 | 79048 | 100.00 |
5 | 23698 | 0 | 23698 | 100.00 |
6 | 13786 | 0 | 13786 | 100.00 |
7 | 311 | 0 | 311 | 100.00 |
7-D | 42 | 0 | 42 | 100.00 |
7-F-D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
8 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 100.00 |
8-D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
7-F | 237 | 5 | 242 | 97.93 |
6-F | 2947 | 211 | 3158 | 93.32 |
6-D | 2977 | 327 | 3304 | 90.10 |
5-F | 3278 | 372 | 3650 | 89.81 |
5-D | 2831 | 431 | 3262 | 86.79 |
4-F | 2863 | 538 | 3401 | 84.18 |
4-D | 3429 | 792 | 4221 | 81.24 |
3-F | 15431 | 3671 | 19102 | 80.78 |
1-F | 3120 | 807 | 3927 | 79.45 |
3-D | 190 | 55 | 245 | 77.55 |
2-F | 11709 | 3423 | 15132 | 77.38 |
5-F-D | 559 | 237 | 796 | 70.23 |
6-F-D | 232 | 99 | 331 | 70.09 |
4-F-D | 56 | 32 | 88 | 63.64 |
3-F-D | 4 | 4 | 8 | 50.00 |
To be honest I am supriced, that ranged units always hit if enemy does not have Flying or Dodge. And have better accuracy than melee overall.
This is absolutely a bug in the game logic which I have just fixed. I will send you some STEEM as a bug bounty for finding this serious issue and bringing it to my attention. Thank you!
Will the code for logic of fights be publicly available in the future? In a way that everybody can verify result of given battle? Sometimes I have the impression that what happens in the fight is different from theory. Like cocatrice dodging several times in a row. The other thing is that on the SM website there is no information about the chances of occurrence of a given ability or dodge, and that would be useful :)
Yes, at some point the code for fights will be made available so that the results can be independently verified.
Dodge gives a 25% chance of evading attack, as does Flying if the attacker does not also have Flying. Additionally, each 1 point difference in Speed gives another 10% chance of evading an attack. The Cocatrice is a hard card to hit and will often evade attacks many times in a row.
Thank you. I am glad I was able to help keep game in good shape. Archers should be less OP now.
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